Thursday, September 13, 2012

NFL Survivor Pick: 2012 Week Two

This week's pick will come a bit earlier than normal as the Cheap Seats prepare to actually occupy some seats this weekend at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Week 2 in the NFL season is almost as hard to call as Week 1.  The trick is to not get too caught up in what happened in Week 1, either good or  bad.  Too small of a sample size to glean any real knowledge.

Since this is our first foray in providing a weekly analysis, we are still tweaking the format.  Should we continue to provide commentary on each game?  We think, yes.  While it may seem frivolous at this point, it will become much more important as the season progresses and more and more teams come off your board each week.

A bit more on our philosophy:  We scour the web for recommendations from so-called experts.  Take these recommendations into careful consideration.  Use our own personal knowledge.  Then come to a conclusion.  We would be remiss if we did not look for other recommendations before making our own.  There are many opinions out there.  Ours is but one.

Wouldn't Touch with a Ten Foot Pole
Kansas City (+3) @ Buffalo - Both teams miserably under-achieved in the first week.  Which team, if either turns it around?  We don't know.

New Orleans (-2.5) @ Carolina -  Division game with the favorite on the road.  Still don't know what to make of the Saints with all the off-season drama.  Will Cam Newton have a sophomore slump for the Panthers?  Maybe, maybe not..  But the  first week was not kind.

Minnesota (-1.5) @ Indianapolis - Andrew Luck played like a rookie in his first start for the Colts.  Even with Adrian Peterson apparently at full strength, the Vikings are just not that good.

Oakland (-3) @ Miami -  The Raiders are probably better than the Dolphins, but are making a big time zone jump.  Ryan Tannehill may or may not be as bad as he performed last week against Houston.

Baltimore (+2.5) @ Philadelphia - Not real sure why Philly is favored after that atrocious game last week in Cleveland.  And the Ravens looked pretty good against Cincy.

Washington (-3) @ St. Louis -  As good as Robert Griffin III was against New Orleans last week, remember, he is still a rookie.  Not enough trust yet for us.

Dalllas (-3) @ Seattle -  This may look like a good pick, but it's a long trip for the Cowboys and strange things can happen in the Pacific Northwest.

Denver (+3) @ Atlanta -  Still not enough data on either team for us.  Also, it's the Monday nighter, which we try to avoid.

Looks Good on Paper
Cleveland (+7) @ Cincinnati - This may be the best chance to pick the Bengals all year.  But this is a division game and goofy things happen in division games.  Were this game played later in the season with less options available, we may have recommended it. But this being Survivor, it's too early to risk it.

Houston (-7) @ Jacksonville - We avoid picking road teams when possible.  And this could possibly be a trap game for the Texans, who have the Peyton Manning led Broncos next  week.

Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego - Long trip for the Titans.  This almost makes it to one our recommended games, but we still don't trust the Chargers.

NY Jets (+5) @ Pittsburgh - We don't get it.  Some sites are recommending picking the Steelers this week.  We don't know if the Jets are that good or Buffalo is that bad.  Same goes with the Broncos who beat the Steelers. Also Pittsburgh is coming off a short week.  In good conscience, we cannot recommend this game.

Detroit (+7) @ San Francisco - The Niners are good.  The Lions are not as bad (Matthew Stafford) as last week indicated.  San Fran might have a bit of a let down after the Green Bay game last week. Detroit has something to prove.  This is not a bad pick, just not one we would make in Week 2.

Our Recommendations
Arizona (+13.5) @ New England - This is obviously the safest pick of the week.  Also the biggest spread of the week.  The Patriots have much more future value than any other team.  This is obviously the first opportunity to use some strategy in you pool.

Tampa Bay (+7) @ NY Giants - The Giants have had extra time to work out the kinks that caused their season-opening loss to Dallas in the Wednesday nighter.  The Bucs looked better than expected in their win over Carolina.  Josh Freeman looked more like the Josh Freeman of 2010 than 2011, which is a good sign.  But I don't see the defending Super Bowl champs starting 0-2 at home.

The Pick
Houston is off the board for us as that was our Week 1 pick.  While we are awfully tempted to go with the G-Men, New England is our pick.  While we may wish we had the Patriots later in the season, nothing is guaranteed, so we will go with the pick that gives us the best chance to survive.  Besides if, heaven forbid, Brady were to go down sometime in the next few weeks, all that future value goes out the window.

1 comment:

  1. I would have gone with New England as well...An amazing game...Goes to show that anything can happen in the NFL.