Friday, September 21, 2012

2012 NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick

Our pick of New England last week turned out to be a big flop.  We were tempted to take the Giants, hindsight being 20/20 and all, should have.  That one was also too close for comfort.

Everything that says you should pick a team aligned with the Patriots/Cardinals game last week.  Double digit home favorite.  Inter-conference opponent.  West Coast (almost) team going east in an early start time.  Every cliche in the book is apropos here.  Any given Sunday.  That's why they play games.  Etc.

Ninety nine times out of 100, we would make the same pick.  These things happen.  So we are officially out (as is close to 50% of the field).  However, this will not stop us from further analysis.  So on to Week 3.

Stay Far, Far Away
Tampa Bay (+8) @ Dallas - After last week's meltdown in the Pacific Northwest by the Cowboys and Tampa's near upset of NYG, we're just not comfortable going with the home favorite here.

Jacksonville (+3) @ Indianapolis - We have absolutely no idea what may happen in this game. Two young QBs on bad teams.  Nuff said.

NYJ (-1.5) @ Miami - Division game.  Favorite on the road.  We don't think the Jets are as good as they think they and the Dolphins are as bad as everyone thinks they are.

Cincinnati (+3) @ Washington - This game is way too evenly matched to risk a pick.  That is all.

Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee - Never pick against Detroit.  Never trust Detroit unless you have to.  We think the Lions will pull it out, but would not risk it.  Chris Johnson could figure out how to run at any moment, we would hate for it to be this week if we picked Detroit.

Philadelphia (-3) @ Arizona - The Eagles and Mike Vick have been very, very lucky the past two weeks.  The Cards are a very good defensive team.  Their offense, however, leaves much to be desired.

Atlanta (+3) @ San Diego - This is pretty much a pick 'em.  Nothing to see here.  Move on.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland - James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are out for the Steelers.  Enough of a reason for us to stay away.

Houston (-2) @ Denver - Peyton Manning will not throw three picks again.  The Texans are going from sea level to altitude.  We think the line is too tight and that Houston will prevail, but there are better options.

New England (+2.5) @ Baltimore - Both teams coming off games they could have (should have?) won.  This should be a great game to watch.  Not a great game to pick.

Green Bay (-3) @ Seattle - Strange things happen in the Pacific Northwest.  The Seahawks defense is good. The Packers have not looked like world beaters up to this point.

Looks Good on Paper
Kansas City (+8.5) @ New Orleans - We confess, this should be a walk in the park for the Saints.  Should be.  The Chiefs have been blown out twice.  But the New Orleans defense has been a sieve.  A game between to 0-2 teams is not where we want to put our faith in Week 3.

Worth a Look
St. Louis (+7) @ Chicago - A lot of people are down on the Bears and Jay Cutler.  Sam Bradford and the Rams looked pretty good against the Redskins last week. Chicago has three extra days.  And they're a pretty darn good football team.

Buffalo (-3) @ Cleveland - What is that you say?  You think we're crazy?  Maybe.  Or maybe like a fox.  This is tough week to pick.  We think that debacle against the Jets was an aberration for the Bills. They are better than that.  The Browns are..........well, the Browns.  Brandon Weeden may or may turn out to be a good NFL QB.  Right now he is not.

San Francisco (-7) @ Minnesota - The 'Niners may be the best team in the NFC.  This game screams trap. But Jim Harbaugh is the coach.  Yes, it's a road game.  But are the alternatives any more attractive?

The Pick
This, my friends, is a tough week to call.  We are a bit conflicted.  New Orleans should be the pick, but they have been a hot mess thus far. Jay Cutler is hard to trust with the Bears. Buffalo, really?  That's how tough this week is.  San Francisco on the road.

Wow.  We really want go with the Bills, but in the end, San Fran is the pick.  We just don't see the 'Niners having a meltdown in Minnesota.

1 comment:

  1. If I were in a Survivor League, I might be tempted to pick Detroit just so I can save the San Fran pick for later in the season.