2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 10

If you're still reading this, that means you have survived 9 weeks of your eliminator pool. Congratulations.

So far, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans and Dallas are off of our board.

Let's take a look at this week's games.

Jacksonville (+13.5) @ Tennessee - That is the pick. No need to go any further. At least for us. With the teams we have left this is an obvious choice. The Jags are just that bad. And the Titans are much better with Jake Locker behind center.

St. Louis (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - This one is solid. If you still have the Colts available. We don't.

Oakland (+7.5) @ NY Giants - Sure, the G-men have looked better as of late, but do we really trust them right now? No, we don't. This is one to stay away from.

There are five teams that are 6.5 point favorites - Green Bay over Philadelphia, Seattle over Atlanta, San Francisco over Carolina, Denver over San Diego and New Orleans over Dallas.

We have none of the favorites available to us.

That being said, Green Bay, without Aaron Rodgers? No thanks.

Seattle has not looked good in their last two games and playing in the Georgia Dome, who knows?

San Francisco playing at home against the Panthers may be the best of the lot. But Carolina is no pushover.

Denver on the road against a division rival? Not going there.

The Saints are good at home. Dallas is a mess defensively. Probably a good pick. But we wouldn't touch it.

The Pick
Stated above. Titans all the way.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 9

Survival through Week 8, on to Week 9.

So far, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans are off of our board.  Each has won. But things get infinitely more difficult from here.

We have now used most of the good teams in the league. So our options are very limited now.

Tampa Bay (+16.5) @ Seattle - No brainer, if you've got the Seahawks left. Chances are you, like us, do not.

Minnesota (+10.5) @ Dallas - Full disclosure here. We are Cowboys fans and have been since birth. We don't like picking games involving Dallas. Either for or against. We have seen the Cowboys win too many games they should have lost and lose too many games they should have won. We rely on Vegas lines when making our survivor picks. They get paid to make lines and have no emotional investment. They have placed Dallas as double digit home favorites. Those teams win over 80% of the time.

Chicago (+10.5) @ Green Bay - Another double digit home favorite. This is a divisional game, which would give us reason for trepidation most of the time. But Jay Cutler is out for the Bears. This makes it an easy pick for the Packers.

Atlanta (+7.5) @ Carolina - This one, we are not too sure about. Atlanta has too much talent (even with the injuries) and we are just not sure about the Panthers yet.

The Pick
We don't have Seattle or Green Bay available, so it's between Dallas and Carolina. We are going with Vegas here and taking the 10.5 home favorite Cowboys.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 8

So far we have survived 7 weeks of NFL football. If you are still with us, you should be left with well under half of your initial entries in your pool.

So far, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, San Francisco and Green Bay are off of our board. That leaves us with some good options left this week, but we will also comment on those that are not available to us.

San Francisco (-16.5) vs. Jacksonville - Technically this a road game for the 49ers. But in reality, it's in London, England. It has been established that the Jaguars are not good. San Fran is not available to us, but if you haven't used them yet, this is the safest pick of the week.

Washington (+13.5) @ Denver - Alas, Denver is no longer available to us. Double digit favorites at home win over 80% of the time. This game looks like an above 80% probability of the home team winning. If you have the Broncos available, this one is safe as well.

Buffalo (+12.5) @ New Orleans - Now, this is a game that we're interested in. Why? Because we have the Saints available to us. This one looks like a lock as well.

Seattle (-10.5) @ St. Louis - This is the fourth game with a double digit favorite. The Rams are without starting QB Sam Bradford. The Seahawks are not quite the same team on the road as they are at home. But this is the Rams we're talking about. Another safe pick if you've got it.

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Minnesota - This is a division game. The favorite is on the road. Two things we like to stay away from if possible. But if you saw the mess that the Vikings offense has become on Monday night.......Mercy. Who knows who is going to start at QB for Minnesota now with the Josh Freeman concussion situation. But does it really matter? The Pack is another safe pick.

The Pick
For us, it's easy. New Orleans. Of the five games profiled, the Saints are the only team we have available to us. If any of these five teams are available to you, we think they are all safe.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 7

So far, we have used  Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis and San Francisco. If you are still with us, you are still in.

On to Week 7.

Cleveland (+10.5) @ Green Bay - The only double digit spread of the week. We don't see where the Pack loses this game. The best bet of the week.

Buffalo (+8.5) @ Miami - The Dolphins hold little future value at this point. This could be the best bet to pick Miami. Our only trepidation on this game is that it is a division game.

San Diego (-7.5) @ Jacksonville - OK, so picking against the Jags has been a good ploy all season. Probably is here as well. However, Jacksonville showed signs of life against Denver last week and the Chargers are making a west-to-east cross country trip. We will pass.

Houston (+6.5) @ Kansas City - We are surprised the spread on this one is not more. The Texans have completely fallen apart and are now without Matt Schaub (though that may not be a bad thing). But their backup came in and promptly threw a pick six. All that being said, this game scares us just a bit.

The Pick

We are very tempted to go with Miami or Kansas City. However, we are going with the safer pick in Green Bay.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 6

On to Week 6 of NFL Survivor and we are still going strong. Last week saw the first big hit of the season with the Jets win against the Falcons taking out between 30 and 40 percent of most pools.

Thus far, we have Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver and St. Louis off of our board.

This week's slam dunk, lead pipe lock is Denver over Jacksonville. We don't have that option. Next best? Seattle over Tennessee. Oops. That one is gone as well. But there are still plenty of options available. Let's take a look.

Jacksonville (+26.5) @ Denver - Yes, you read that right. 26.5 point spread. We really don't see any way that the Broncos lose this game. If Denver is still available to you, take the Broncos and enjoy your weekend. No worries here.

Tennessee (+13.5) @ Seattle - This one might have been a little closer if the Titans had Jake Locker available. Traveling to Seattle, where the Seahawks are a much better team than on the road, Tennessee should provide very little resistance.

Arizona (+11.5) @ San Francisco - This is a division game, which we never like. We also remember what the Cardinals did to us on the road in New England last year. That being said, this looks like a good pick. Double digit home favorites win over 80% of the time.

Oakland (+8.5) @ Kansas City - Another division game. And these teams hate each other. The Chiefs should win this, but we think there are better options.

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Houston - Matt Schaub is a mess for the Texans. The Rams are just not very good. Unless Schaub throws more TD's to Ram DB's than he throws to his own WR's, Houston should win easily. But who's to say he will?

NY Giants (+7.5) @ Chicago - If this game were not being played Thursday, we would really like to take the Bears. But the Giants will not go winless and a short week is the perfect time for something crazy to happen. Not touching this one.

The Pick
If we had Denver or Seattle available, that would be the pick. We don't. The pick here is San Francisco.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 5

If you've made it this far in your survivor pool, congratulations. But it only gets tougher from here.

We are still in and have used the Colts, Ravens, Seahawks and Broncos in the first four weeks. We will still explore games that those teams are in, but will concentrate on who we have left.

This week scares us, we're not afraid to admit. But it does feature some solid games to pick from.

Jacksonville (+11.5) @ St. Louis - Good news, bad news here. Good news: double digit home favorites win over 80% of the time. Bad news: the Rams are not a good football team. Good news: the Jaguars are worse.

NY Jets (+8.5) @ Atlanta - The Falcons may be the best 1-3 team in the league, for whatever that's worth. The Jets, at 2-2, are lucky to be there. Atlanta probably doesn't lose two in a row at home, although the Jets defense is for real. The offense on the other hand?

Denver (-7.5) @ Dallas - Based on Philip Rivers and the Chargers shredding the Cowboy defense for over 400 passing yards and that Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for over 347,000 yards and 168 touchdowns (stats may be off a bit), this should not be as close as the 7.5 point spread. Denver is off our board, but the Broncos would be a solid pick if you have them available.

Detroit (+6.5) @ Green Bay - We like to stay away from division games when we can. While we think Green Bay is a solid pick, we like other options better. And the Pack has much better value in future games.

Houston (+6.5) @ San Francisco - Just stay away from this game. Both teams are way too unpredictable.

The Pick
As much as St. Louis makes us nervous, Jacksonville is just too awful. Plus, the Rams have absolutely no value down the road.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 4

We have now used Indy, Baltimore and Seattle as we survived the first three weeks of the NFL season.

This weeks games have one fairly safe pick and a whole slew of iffy selections. There is one sleeper that intrigues us as well.

Philadelphia (+10.5) @ Denver - If you still have the Broncos available (and we do), that is the safest game on the slate this week. Peyton Manning may throw for 12,000 yards this season with 95 touchdowns. And that is only a slight exaggeration.  We just don't see the Eagles putting up much of a fight at Mile High. The only thing we don't like about this game is Denver coming off a short week. But having both games at home, we're not too worried about the Broncos.

Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Jacksonville - The Colts looked very good in San Francisco last week. The Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars. On paper, this should be no contest. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective), the games are played on the field. Just ask those that picked Minnesota over Cleveland last week. That's what makes these survivor games so tough. We don't like this game for a few reasons: Road favorite, division game, Indy coming off a very physical West Coast game, now traveling to East Coast. The Colts are off our board since we have already used them, so there is no decision for us. But we would stay away from this one.

Miami (+6.5) @ New Orleans - A battle of two 3-0 teams. We just don't get why anyone would risk this game with much better possibilities out there. One person who writes about this stuff is actually making the Saints his pick. And he has Denver available. Says he's saving the Broncos for Week 6. What if he doesn't make it to Week 6? We generally stay away from the Monday nighters if we can. And we think the Dolphins are for real. Miami may not pull the upset, but we are not taking that chance.

Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Cleveland - Division game. On the road. And did anybody see what happened in Minnesota last week? No thank you.

New York Jets (+3.5) @ Tennessee - This is the sleeper game we mentioned earlier. The Titan defense looks like it can play. Geno Smith looks like a rookie in pressure situations. With wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a road loss to Houston, we really don't know what to make of the Titans quite yet, but they are always in the game. We would gamble on this game if it weren't still early in the season and such a good game still available to us.

The Pick
We're going chalk. Take the Broncos and live to see Week 5.