We have now used Indy, Baltimore and Seattle as we survived the first three weeks of the NFL season.
This weeks games have one fairly safe pick and a whole slew of iffy selections. There is one sleeper that intrigues us as well.
Philadelphia (+10.5) @ Denver - If you still have the Broncos available (and we do), that is the safest game on the slate this week. Peyton Manning may throw for 12,000 yards this season with 95 touchdowns. And that is only a slight exaggeration. We just don't see the Eagles putting up much of a fight at Mile High. The only thing we don't like about this game is Denver coming off a short week. But having both games at home, we're not too worried about the Broncos.
Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Jacksonville - The Colts looked very good in San Francisco last week. The Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars. On paper, this should be no contest. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective), the games are played on the field. Just ask those that picked Minnesota over Cleveland last week. That's what makes these survivor games so tough. We don't like this game for a few reasons: Road favorite, division game, Indy coming off a very physical West Coast game, now traveling to East Coast. The Colts are off our board since we have already used them, so there is no decision for us. But we would stay away from this one.
Miami (+6.5) @ New Orleans - A battle of two 3-0 teams. We just don't get why anyone would risk this game with much better possibilities out there. One person who writes about this stuff is actually making the Saints his pick. And he has Denver available. Says he's saving the Broncos for Week 6. What if he doesn't make it to Week 6? We generally stay away from the Monday nighters if we can. And we think the Dolphins are for real. Miami may not pull the upset, but we are not taking that chance.
Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Cleveland - Division game. On the road. And did anybody see what happened in Minnesota last week? No thank you.
New York Jets (+3.5) @ Tennessee - This is the sleeper game we mentioned earlier. The Titan defense looks like it can play. Geno Smith looks like a rookie in pressure situations. With wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a road loss to Houston, we really don't know what to make of the Titans quite yet, but they are always in the game. We would gamble on this game if it weren't still early in the season and such a good game still available to us.
We're going chalk. Take the Broncos and live to see Week 5.