If you've made it this far in your survivor pool, congratulations. But it only gets tougher from here.
We are still in and have used the Colts, Ravens, Seahawks and Broncos in the first four weeks. We will still explore games that those teams are in, but will concentrate on who we have left.
This week scares us, we're not afraid to admit. But it does feature some solid games to pick from.
Jacksonville (+11.5) @ St. Louis - Good news, bad news here. Good news: double digit home favorites win over 80% of the time. Bad news: the Rams are not a good football team. Good news: the Jaguars are worse.
NY Jets (+8.5) @ Atlanta - The Falcons may be the best 1-3 team in the league, for whatever that's worth. The Jets, at 2-2, are lucky to be there. Atlanta probably doesn't lose two in a row at home, although the Jets defense is for real. The offense on the other hand?
Denver (-7.5) @ Dallas - Based on Philip Rivers and the Chargers shredding the Cowboy defense for over 400 passing yards and that Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for over 347,000 yards and 168 touchdowns (stats may be off a bit), this should not be as close as the 7.5 point spread. Denver is off our board, but the Broncos would be a solid pick if you have them available.
Detroit (+6.5) @ Green Bay - We like to stay away from division games when we can. While we think Green Bay is a solid pick, we like other options better. And the Pack has much better value in future games.
Houston (+6.5) @ San Francisco - Just stay away from this game. Both teams are way too unpredictable.
The Pick
As much as St. Louis makes us nervous, Jacksonville is just too awful. Plus, the Rams have absolutely no value down the road.
Showing posts with label NFL Eliminator. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Eliminator. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 3
Ok, since this week has three ridiculously easy picks, we are going to depart from the normal format.
What do we know so far?
- Seattle and Denver are the best teams in their respective conferences.
- Jacksonville is not good. Downright atrocious.
- Green Bay and San Francisco are good.
That about sums up what we know for sure. After two weeks there are still a lot questions.
Seattle at home against Jacksonville is about the surest pick you will ever see in a survivor pool. As of right now, the Seahawks are 19.5 point favorites. And that is probably too low.
Denver is a 14.5 point favorite at home against Oakland in the Monday night tilt while San Francisco is favored by 10.5 at home against Indianapolis.
Pick any of those three, and you are pretty much safe, in our opinion. If anyone goes out this week, they were trying to get too cute.
After sweating out the first two weeks with Indy and Baltimore, we are personally ready to sit back and relax this week. Therefore, Seattle is our pick. But there is some method to it.
Denver and San Francisco both have Jacksonville on their schedule this season within the next six weeks. So it would make no sense to take either of those teams if you still have Seattle available.
Only two weeks into the season, everybody has at least one of the three near-locks available. But if you want to get cute, there are some options available.
Cleveland (+5.5) @ Minnesota - The Vikings have the lowest future value of any somewhat decent pick this week. The Browns lost their QB. We could make an argument for making this pick, but we don't think it's worth the risk.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ New England - The Bucs are obviously an unmitigated mess at this point. The Pats could very easily be 0-2 against teams that are not very good. New England may get Gronkowski back this week, but that does not give us enough confidence to to risk a pick here.
Arizona (+7.5) @ New Orleans - This seems like a good pick. But for some reason, just doesn't feel right to us. We think the spread is too high, but the guys in Vegas are good at what they do. With the "easy three" on the board this week, we are staying away.
The Seahawks should pummel the Jaguars this week. That's where we're going. Could be over, for all practical intents and purposes by halftime. We will take the (supposedly) easy route this week and start sweating again in Week 4.
What do we know so far?
- Seattle and Denver are the best teams in their respective conferences.
- Jacksonville is not good. Downright atrocious.
- Green Bay and San Francisco are good.
That about sums up what we know for sure. After two weeks there are still a lot questions.
Seattle at home against Jacksonville is about the surest pick you will ever see in a survivor pool. As of right now, the Seahawks are 19.5 point favorites. And that is probably too low.
Denver is a 14.5 point favorite at home against Oakland in the Monday night tilt while San Francisco is favored by 10.5 at home against Indianapolis.
Pick any of those three, and you are pretty much safe, in our opinion. If anyone goes out this week, they were trying to get too cute.
After sweating out the first two weeks with Indy and Baltimore, we are personally ready to sit back and relax this week. Therefore, Seattle is our pick. But there is some method to it.
Denver and San Francisco both have Jacksonville on their schedule this season within the next six weeks. So it would make no sense to take either of those teams if you still have Seattle available.
Only two weeks into the season, everybody has at least one of the three near-locks available. But if you want to get cute, there are some options available.
Cleveland (+5.5) @ Minnesota - The Vikings have the lowest future value of any somewhat decent pick this week. The Browns lost their QB. We could make an argument for making this pick, but we don't think it's worth the risk.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ New England - The Bucs are obviously an unmitigated mess at this point. The Pats could very easily be 0-2 against teams that are not very good. New England may get Gronkowski back this week, but that does not give us enough confidence to to risk a pick here.
Arizona (+7.5) @ New Orleans - This seems like a good pick. But for some reason, just doesn't feel right to us. We think the spread is too high, but the guys in Vegas are good at what they do. With the "easy three" on the board this week, we are staying away.
The Seahawks should pummel the Jaguars this week. That's where we're going. Could be over, for all practical intents and purposes by halftime. We will take the (supposedly) easy route this week and start sweating again in Week 4.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 2 Pick
Anyone who was not nervous at some point during week one picked Denver on Thursday night and was sitting back laughing at everyone else. The Sunday and Monday games were crazy.
We sweated out the Indianapolis win over Oakland and survived to week two.
With all of the week one results in, we are even less confident going into week two.
Here's how we see things shaping up:
NY Jets (+12.5) @ New England - Largest early spread of the week. We don't like that that this game is on Thursday. Strange things happen in short weeks. But we feel this most likely benefits the Patriots more than the Jets. Despite last week's win, the Jets are a team in disarray. And New England seems like a team more likely to be ready after a short week. Early picks are heavy on the Patriots.
Tennessee (+8.5) @ Houston - The Texans barely escaped the late Monday game with a win. The Titans played surprisingly well in their upset of Pittsburgh Houston will have a short week coming off the late Monday night game in San Diego.
Washington (+7.5) @ Green Bay - Robert Griffin III looked very rusty in the first half of the Redskins' Monday night game. He looked much better in the 2nd half. The Packers lost to a superior San Francisco team on the road. Again, Washington will have a short week and has to go on the road.
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Baltimore - The Ravens' defense looked bad against Denver. But the Broncos do have Peyton Manning. The Browns lost to Miami. At home.
Jacksonville (+5.5) @ Oakland - We can't believe we are actually talking about this game. But the Terelle Pryor-led Raiders took Indianapolis to the gun. And the Jaguars were absolutely atrocious at home against Kansas City. We are quite confident this will be the only time Oakland is mentioned positively regarding Survivor Pools.
The Thought Process:
While Houston is probably a pretty safe pick, coming off the Monday night game and the fact that they still face both Oakland and Jacksonville later in the season, we are passing on this one. While it is still way to early to make picks based on who a team faces in the future, we were going to pass on this one anyway. The future games are only a bonus.
Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers. Washington has RGIII. We'll take Rodgers any day. But with RGIII anything is possible. If he catches fire, the Pack will be running around trying to stop him all day long. We really think Green Bay wins going away, but there are better picks and the RGIII factor is enough to scare us away from this game.
Oakland is very, very tempting. If this were week five or six, then we're probably pulling the trigger on this one. But this early in the season, we are really in survival mode, move on to the next week and deal with things as they come.
That leaves two games. New England/NYJ and Cleveland/Baltimore
Both games are divisional games, which we like to stay away from. But these seem like the best best bets to survive. The Browns and the Jets are not very good. The Patriots and Ravens both lost key pieces to their teams during the offseason. New England has Bill Belichek, and after that close call in Buffalo, he'll have the team ready to play. Baltimore has had extra time to prepare since they played the opening Thursday game. The Patriots have more future value than the Ravens.
All that being said...........
The Pick:
Baltimore. With the other games being eliminated for various reasons, we think the Ravens and Patriots are the surest picks for week two. We don't thing either pick could go wrong. We are going with Baltimore based on future value. Yes, we know what we said earlier about future value. But when that is the tiebreaker in deciding whom you pick, it's relevant.
We sweated out the Indianapolis win over Oakland and survived to week two.
With all of the week one results in, we are even less confident going into week two.
Here's how we see things shaping up:
NY Jets (+12.5) @ New England - Largest early spread of the week. We don't like that that this game is on Thursday. Strange things happen in short weeks. But we feel this most likely benefits the Patriots more than the Jets. Despite last week's win, the Jets are a team in disarray. And New England seems like a team more likely to be ready after a short week. Early picks are heavy on the Patriots.
Tennessee (+8.5) @ Houston - The Texans barely escaped the late Monday game with a win. The Titans played surprisingly well in their upset of Pittsburgh Houston will have a short week coming off the late Monday night game in San Diego.
Washington (+7.5) @ Green Bay - Robert Griffin III looked very rusty in the first half of the Redskins' Monday night game. He looked much better in the 2nd half. The Packers lost to a superior San Francisco team on the road. Again, Washington will have a short week and has to go on the road.
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Baltimore - The Ravens' defense looked bad against Denver. But the Broncos do have Peyton Manning. The Browns lost to Miami. At home.
Jacksonville (+5.5) @ Oakland - We can't believe we are actually talking about this game. But the Terelle Pryor-led Raiders took Indianapolis to the gun. And the Jaguars were absolutely atrocious at home against Kansas City. We are quite confident this will be the only time Oakland is mentioned positively regarding Survivor Pools.
The Thought Process:
While Houston is probably a pretty safe pick, coming off the Monday night game and the fact that they still face both Oakland and Jacksonville later in the season, we are passing on this one. While it is still way to early to make picks based on who a team faces in the future, we were going to pass on this one anyway. The future games are only a bonus.
Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers. Washington has RGIII. We'll take Rodgers any day. But with RGIII anything is possible. If he catches fire, the Pack will be running around trying to stop him all day long. We really think Green Bay wins going away, but there are better picks and the RGIII factor is enough to scare us away from this game.
Oakland is very, very tempting. If this were week five or six, then we're probably pulling the trigger on this one. But this early in the season, we are really in survival mode, move on to the next week and deal with things as they come.
That leaves two games. New England/NYJ and Cleveland/Baltimore
Both games are divisional games, which we like to stay away from. But these seem like the best best bets to survive. The Browns and the Jets are not very good. The Patriots and Ravens both lost key pieces to their teams during the offseason. New England has Bill Belichek, and after that close call in Buffalo, he'll have the team ready to play. Baltimore has had extra time to prepare since they played the opening Thursday game. The Patriots have more future value than the Ravens.
All that being said...........
The Pick:
Baltimore. With the other games being eliminated for various reasons, we think the Ravens and Patriots are the surest picks for week two. We don't thing either pick could go wrong. We are going with Baltimore based on future value. Yes, we know what we said earlier about future value. But when that is the tiebreaker in deciding whom you pick, it's relevant.
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