2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 4

We have now used Indy, Baltimore and Seattle as we survived the first three weeks of the NFL season.

This weeks games have one fairly safe pick and a whole slew of iffy selections. There is one sleeper that intrigues us as well.

Philadelphia (+10.5) @ Denver - If you still have the Broncos available (and we do), that is the safest game on the slate this week. Peyton Manning may throw for 12,000 yards this season with 95 touchdowns. And that is only a slight exaggeration.  We just don't see the Eagles putting up much of a fight at Mile High. The only thing we don't like about this game is Denver coming off a short week. But having both games at home, we're not too worried about the Broncos.

Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Jacksonville - The Colts looked very good in San Francisco last week. The Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars. On paper, this should be no contest. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective), the games are played on the field. Just ask those that picked Minnesota over Cleveland last week. That's what makes these survivor games so tough. We don't like this game for a few reasons: Road favorite, division game, Indy coming off a very physical West Coast game, now traveling to East Coast. The Colts are off our board since we have already used them, so there is no decision for us. But we would stay away from this one.

Miami (+6.5) @ New Orleans - A battle of two 3-0 teams. We just don't get why anyone would risk this game with much better possibilities out there. One person who writes about this stuff is actually making the Saints his pick. And he has Denver available. Says he's saving the Broncos for Week 6. What if he doesn't make it to Week 6? We generally stay away from the Monday nighters if we can. And we think the Dolphins are for real. Miami may not pull the upset, but we are not taking that chance.

Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Cleveland - Division game. On the road. And did anybody see what happened in Minnesota last week? No thank you.

New York Jets (+3.5) @ Tennessee - This is the sleeper game we mentioned earlier. The Titan defense looks like it can play. Geno Smith looks like a rookie in pressure situations. With wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a road loss to Houston, we really don't know what to make of the Titans quite yet, but they are always in the game. We would gamble on this game if it weren't still early in the season and such a good game still available to us.

The Pick
We're going chalk. Take the Broncos and live to see Week 5.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 3

Ok, since this week has three ridiculously easy picks, we are going to depart from the normal format.

What do we know so far?
 - Seattle and Denver are the best teams in their respective conferences.
 - Jacksonville is not good. Downright atrocious.
 - Green Bay and San Francisco are good.

That about sums up what we know for sure. After two weeks there are still a lot questions.

Seattle at home against Jacksonville is about the surest pick you will ever see in a survivor pool. As of right now, the Seahawks are 19.5 point favorites. And that is probably too low.

Denver is a 14.5 point favorite at home against Oakland in the Monday night tilt while San Francisco is favored by 10.5 at home against Indianapolis.

Pick any of those three, and you are pretty much safe, in our opinion. If anyone goes out this week, they were trying to get too cute.

After sweating out the first two weeks with Indy and Baltimore, we are personally ready to sit back and relax this week. Therefore, Seattle is our pick. But there is some method to it.

Denver and San Francisco both have Jacksonville on their schedule this season within the next six weeks. So it would make no sense to take either of those teams if you still have Seattle available.

Only two weeks into the season, everybody has at least one of the three near-locks available. But if you want to get cute, there are some options available.

Cleveland (+5.5) @ Minnesota - The Vikings have the lowest future value of any somewhat decent pick this week. The Browns lost their QB. We could make an argument for making this pick, but we don't think it's worth the risk.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ New England - The Bucs are obviously an unmitigated mess at this point. The Pats could very easily be 0-2 against teams that are not very good. New England may get Gronkowski back this week, but that does not give us enough confidence to to risk a pick here.

Arizona (+7.5) @ New Orleans - This seems like a good pick. But for some reason, just doesn't feel right to us. We think the spread is too high, but the guys in Vegas are good at what they do. With the "easy three" on the board this week, we are staying away.

The Seahawks should pummel the Jaguars this week. That's where we're going. Could be over, for all practical intents and purposes by halftime. We will take the (supposedly) easy route this week and start sweating again in Week 4.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 2 Pick

Anyone who was not nervous at some point during week one picked Denver on Thursday night and was sitting back laughing at everyone else. The Sunday and Monday games were crazy.

We sweated out the Indianapolis win over Oakland and survived to week two.

With all of the week one results in, we are even less confident going into week two.

Here's how we see things shaping up:

NY Jets (+12.5) @ New England - Largest early spread of the week. We don't like that that this game is on Thursday. Strange things happen in short weeks.  But we feel this most likely benefits the Patriots more than the Jets. Despite last week's win, the Jets are a team in disarray. And New England seems like a team more likely to be ready after a short week. Early picks are heavy on the Patriots.

Tennessee (+8.5) @ Houston - The Texans barely escaped the late Monday game with a win. The Titans played surprisingly well in their upset of Pittsburgh  Houston will have a short week coming off the late Monday night game in San Diego.

Washington (+7.5) @ Green Bay - Robert Griffin III looked very rusty in the first half of the Redskins' Monday night game. He looked much better in the 2nd half. The Packers lost to a superior San Francisco team on the road. Again, Washington will have a short week and has to go on the road.

Cleveland (+6.5) @ Baltimore - The Ravens' defense looked bad against Denver. But the Broncos do have Peyton Manning. The Browns lost to Miami. At home.

Jacksonville (+5.5) @ Oakland - We can't believe we are actually talking about this game. But the Terelle Pryor-led Raiders took Indianapolis to the gun. And the Jaguars were absolutely atrocious at home against Kansas City. We are quite confident this will be the only time Oakland is mentioned positively regarding Survivor Pools.

The Thought Process:
While Houston is probably a pretty safe pick, coming off the Monday night game and the fact that they still face both Oakland and Jacksonville later in the season, we are passing on this one. While it is still way to early to make picks based on who a team faces in the future, we were going to pass on this one anyway. The future games are only a bonus.

Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers. Washington has RGIII. We'll take Rodgers any day. But with RGIII anything is possible. If he catches fire, the Pack will be running around trying to stop him all day long. We really think Green Bay wins going away, but there are better picks and the RGIII factor is enough to scare us away from this game.

Oakland is very, very tempting. If this were week five or six, then we're probably pulling the trigger on this one. But this early in the season, we are really in survival mode, move on to the next week and deal with things as they come.

That leaves two games. New England/NYJ and Cleveland/Baltimore

Both games are divisional games, which we like to stay away from. But these seem like the best best bets to survive. The Browns and the Jets are not very good. The Patriots and Ravens both lost key pieces to their teams during the offseason.  New England has Bill Belichek, and after that close call in Buffalo, he'll have the team ready to play. Baltimore has had extra time to prepare since they played the opening Thursday game. The Patriots have more future value than the Ravens.

All that being said...........

The Pick:
Baltimore. With the other games being eliminated for various reasons, we think the Ravens and Patriots are the surest picks for week two. We don't thing either pick could go wrong. We are going with Baltimore based on future value. Yes, we know what we said earlier about future value. But when that is the tiebreaker in deciding whom you pick, it's relevant.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week One

Here in the Cheap Seats, we have entered an NFL Survivor Pool for the fourth year and will be keeping everyone abreast of our picks, reasoning and results.  Let it be known right up front, we have not done well the three previous years. Last year was an unmitigated disaster (thanks Patriots), although it wasn't entirely our fault. Yeah, right.

For those unfamiliar with Survivor games, it's really quite simple.  Everyone in the game puts up an entry fee. Last person still alive wins the whole thing.

How the game works:
Everyone entered picks one team to win their game that week. The team you pick wins, you survive. Your team loses, you're out. But the catch is that you can only pick a team one time per season. Sure it would have been real nice to pick New England every week during their 16-0 regular season. But once you pick a team to win, you can not pick that team again. Ever. Until next season. Or the playoffs, if it gets that far.

The first week always scares us. We don't really know what to expect. There are always the surprise teams that come out of nowhere and the disappointing teams that fall on their face. The pre-season is of no help whatsoever.

We try to stick to a couple of loose rules when making our picks. Stay away from games involving division rivals and stay away from picking teams on the road.

Week One offers some fairly good choices.

Oakland (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - Some pools restrict the number of times you can pick against a team. Ours does not. So picking whoever is playing the Raiders every week is an option. The Colts at home against Oakland seems to be the surest pick on the board.

New England (-9.5) @ Buffalo - Yes, it is an intradivisional game. Yes, the favorite is on the road.  But it's the Bills and the Patriots. What could go wrong, right?

Baltimore (+8.5) @ Denver - The spread on this one surprised us. The defending Super Champs more than a touchdown underdog?  Of course the oddsmakers in Vegas know much more about this than we do. It is also the opening game of the season on a Thursday night. Thanks, but we will pass.

Tennessee (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh - The Steelers at home are always tough. The Titans don't look to be all that good this season.

The Thought Process:
There are couple of ways to go. And a couple we will stay away from.

We will pass on the Broncos for the reasons stated above and Denver has the highest future value of the four teams.

We will also not go with Patriots, for two reasons. Strange things can happen in Orchard Park and New England has the second highest future value.

That leaves Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.

The Colts seem to be the surest pick. That has been played out with early picks in Survivor Pools. Indianapolis has an astronomical 41% pick rate of those that have already made picks. So going with the Colts means going along with the crowd and everyone moves along into week 2. On the flip side, Indy also has the lowest future value of any of the four teams.

The Steelers only have an 8% pick rate. So if Indy somehow goes down (doubtful, but anything is possible), the pools will be cut down considerably.  Pittsburgh does have more future value than the Indy.

The Pick:
In the end, the name of the game is Survivor. With the Colts having the best chance to win and a lower future value, we're putting in the pick for Indianapolis.

20 year old idiots: You were once one

First off, let's just get this out of the way, we think Johnny Manziel is an idiot.  We don't think that is up for debate.

We can say the same about Miley Cyrus.

They were born about two weeks apart in 1992.  Both 20.  Both born into affluent or semi-affluent families. Both idiots. Both 20.

We were idiots when we were 20.  I'm sure many of you can relate. But we, at twenty, were not in the spotlight or had a camera on us 24/7.  Some of the stuff we did at 20 would be prime fodder for YouTube today.

But we didn't have to deal with that.

We are in no way condoning the behavior of either.  Just taking a step  back and saying "You were 20 at one time. Would you want what you did then immortalized on a a social network, much less the national media?"

Perspective.  That's all we're saying, perspective.

Alfredo Sauce Made Easy

I'm going off the rails a bit with this post.  Not sports, not music, but........cooking.

Cooking is not rocket science. Or brain surgery. Or rocket surgery, for that matter. Good cooking does not necessitate a laundry list of exotic ingredients or the possession of intricate technique. In fact, the best alfredo sauce I've ever made (or eaten) consists of three very simple ingredients: butter, heavy whipping cream and Parmesan cheese.

Although I firmly believe recipes are guidelines (except when baking, when it's actually a formula), some ingredients cannot be substituted for optimal results. When I say butter, I mean real butter. Not margarine, not I Can't Believe It's Not Butter (I actually can believe it's not butter), not some other butter substitute. When I say heavy whipping cream, I don't mean Half & Half, or milk, or, heaven forbid, skim milk.

I would not recommend substituting anything for this recipe. If you're on a diet, then your best bet would be to find another recipe, because this is full fat, full flavor deliciousness.

You will need roughly equal parts butter and heavy whipping cream. The amount will depend on how much alfredo sauce you expect to use. I would not recommend making much more than you need since this does not keep and/or reheat well.

Melt the butter in a sauce pan over medium heat. Add the whipping cream and heat almost to a boil. Boiling and dairy products can create an experience you would not wish to repeat. Slowly stir in parmesan cheese until a thin gravy consistency is reached. During this step, make sure to stir constantly so as not to burn the cheese and also to ensure the cheese is incorporated enough to create a creamy smoothness.

Now, ladle over your favorite pasta (fettuccine is my recommendation) and enjoy. That, by itself, is enough, but embellishments are definitely encouraged.

A grilled (or baked) chicken breast seasoned with basil, garlic and oregano can be sliced or diced and added to the plate.

My favorite embellishment involves a bit more technique, which can also be applied to the basic preparation.

Sautee a few sliced mushrooms in butter and a splash of white wine until softened. Then add some fully cooked diced ham and lemon pepper to taste. Then add heavy whipping cream (roughly the same amount as the butter) and heat through. Add fully cooked and cooled noodles (again fettuccine is preferred). Stir and heat through. Add parmesan cheese to desired consistency, stirring constantly. When your preferred consistency and creaminess is reached, transfer immediately to plate and enjoy.

Happy dining.

What Casual Baseball Fans Are Missing

We are here to help out the casual baseball fan whose head may be spinning a bit with all the non-baseball news surrounding baseball.  And we think you know what we're talking about.

With about six weeks left in the season, here's what we have going on:

-  The Pirates are in first place in the NL Central.  Not a typo.  Yes, those Pirates.  From Pittsburgh. The Pirates currently hold a three game advantage over the St. Louis Cardinals.  And a lot of you thought that franchise had folded years ago, right?

- The Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics are currently in a dogfight for supremacy of the AL West. Separated by a mere one half game in the standings, and dead even in the loss column, this race could come down to the last day of the season as it did last year.

- The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are involved in quite the battle themselves in the AL East.  Just a game between them in the standings with Baltimore lurking around at 5 1/2 games out.

- The LA Dodgers are probably playing the best of anyone in baseball right now, taking a commanding lead in the NL West over Arizona.

- On a lesser note, the Kansas City Royals are above .500.  Might not sound like much, but ask a Royals fan.

It's time for A-Rod to fade away. Disappear forever. That won't happen, so it's time for us to just focus on what is happening between the lines. Some good baseball yet to be played. Let's enjoy the pennant races. That's what it should be all about this time of year.

Rangers Need to Take Advantage of Soft August

With about a month and a half left in the season, here is where our Texas Rangers stand.  In first place. But Oakland is not going away.

In the past month, the Rangers have gained a Matt Garza and an Alex Rios.  They have lost a Nelson Cruz, a Colby Lewis and now a Matt Harrison.  So where does that leave them?  Better than before.

"What?", you say.  Texas has not had Lewis or Harrison for practically the entire season.  Their losses don't mean that much.  Sure the Cruz loss hurts, but Rios can fill in adequately and provide production.  Not the same as Cruz, but he will contribute.  Now, take a look at the rotation.  Better to have Garza than a maybe Harrison or Lewis. Or maybe Neftali Feliz.

What the Rangers have right now is what they're going to have to go with down the stretch.  We like the chances.  However, looking at the schedules, the Rangers need to have at least a four game lead going into September.

Texas has an easy August schedule.  Oakland's is tougher.  The tables are turned in September.

And for the "Fire Wash" crowd, Ron Washington deserves no less than manager of the year if he guides this team to the playoffs.  We won't bore you with the details now, but it could be coming at a later date.

Johnny Manziel

The saga of Johnny Manziel, Johnny Football if you will, has been well chronicled. From almost being suspended before the 2012 season to winning the Heisman Trophy, from the insipid tweets to "oversleeping" at the Manning's quarterback academy, the Texas A&M quarterback has gone on quite the ride.

Johnny Football's latest transgression to come to light may land him in hot water with the NCAA.  It has been reported that Manziel received -gasp- monetary compensation for signing memorabilia.  Not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things.

Except.

As opposed to stupid tweeting and "oversleeping", generating income from your own fame is against NCAA rules.  After the weasels at the NCAA get finished probing this situation, it could be bad news for Texas A&M and Johnny Football.  We'll have to wait and see how that all plays out.

We want Manziel to play.  He's fun to watch.  But apparently he's not very bright.  Either that or he has an extreme sense of entitlement.  You can only play the "he's just 20 years old" card so many times before it becomes a problematic behavioral flaw.

Given the NCAA's own investigative incompetence in the past, we wouldn't be surprised if they turn up insufficient evidence to suspend Manziel.  Until Johnny Football pulls another bone-headed stunt.

Riley Cooper

So much happening in the world of sports lately.  And nothing that has to do with on-field performance.

We have Riley Cooper, Johnny (Johnny Football) Manziel, BioGenesis, Alex Rodriguez and Nelson Cruz.

Knee jerk reactions are for twitter and facebook.  Here in the Cheap Seats we like to let things marinate before jumping off the deep end.

Therefore, we will tackle each issue separately and with pertinent distance.

First, Riley Cooper:

What he said was indefensible.  We aren't going there.

It seems as though Riley is a bad drunk.  According to him, he was as surprised as anyone else when the video came out because.............HE DOESN'T REMEMBER SAYING IT!!!

Dude, if you're going get that hammered at a Kenny Chesney show, we would lay low.  We have seen Kenny Chesney.  It's not worth going stupid.  Sure, Chesney is popular.  But not that great.

Ultimately, it's about what Cooper's teammates think.  Idiots like us, and idiots writing for the major sports sites can espouse whatever opinion we/they feel, it doesn't matter.

It really doesn't matter what "we" think.

Let it play out as it will.