If you're still reading this, that means you have survived 9 weeks of your eliminator pool. Congratulations.
So far, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans and Dallas are off of our board.
Let's take a look at this week's games.
Jacksonville (+13.5) @ Tennessee - That is the pick. No need to go any further. At least for us. With the teams we have left this is an obvious choice. The Jags are just that bad. And the Titans are much better with Jake Locker behind center.
St. Louis (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - This one is solid. If you still have the Colts available. We don't.
Oakland (+7.5) @ NY Giants - Sure, the G-men have looked better as of late, but do we really trust them right now? No, we don't. This is one to stay away from.
There are five teams that are 6.5 point favorites - Green Bay over Philadelphia, Seattle over Atlanta, San Francisco over Carolina, Denver over San Diego and New Orleans over Dallas.
We have none of the favorites available to us.
That being said, Green Bay, without Aaron Rodgers? No thanks.
Seattle has not looked good in their last two games and playing in the Georgia Dome, who knows?
San Francisco playing at home against the Panthers may be the best of the lot. But Carolina is no pushover.
Denver on the road against a division rival? Not going there.
The Saints are good at home. Dallas is a mess defensively. Probably a good pick. But we wouldn't touch it.
The Pick
Stated above. Titans all the way.
Showing posts with label Survivor Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Survivor Picks. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 8
So far we have survived 7 weeks of NFL football. If you are still with us, you should be left with well under half of your initial entries in your pool.
So far, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, San Francisco and Green Bay are off of our board. That leaves us with some good options left this week, but we will also comment on those that are not available to us.
San Francisco (-16.5) vs. Jacksonville - Technically this a road game for the 49ers. But in reality, it's in London, England. It has been established that the Jaguars are not good. San Fran is not available to us, but if you haven't used them yet, this is the safest pick of the week.
Washington (+13.5) @ Denver - Alas, Denver is no longer available to us. Double digit favorites at home win over 80% of the time. This game looks like an above 80% probability of the home team winning. If you have the Broncos available, this one is safe as well.
Buffalo (+12.5) @ New Orleans - Now, this is a game that we're interested in. Why? Because we have the Saints available to us. This one looks like a lock as well.
Seattle (-10.5) @ St. Louis - This is the fourth game with a double digit favorite. The Rams are without starting QB Sam Bradford. The Seahawks are not quite the same team on the road as they are at home. But this is the Rams we're talking about. Another safe pick if you've got it.
Green Bay (-9.5) @ Minnesota - This is a division game. The favorite is on the road. Two things we like to stay away from if possible. But if you saw the mess that the Vikings offense has become on Monday night.......Mercy. Who knows who is going to start at QB for Minnesota now with the Josh Freeman concussion situation. But does it really matter? The Pack is another safe pick.
The Pick
For us, it's easy. New Orleans. Of the five games profiled, the Saints are the only team we have available to us. If any of these five teams are available to you, we think they are all safe.
So far, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, San Francisco and Green Bay are off of our board. That leaves us with some good options left this week, but we will also comment on those that are not available to us.
San Francisco (-16.5) vs. Jacksonville - Technically this a road game for the 49ers. But in reality, it's in London, England. It has been established that the Jaguars are not good. San Fran is not available to us, but if you haven't used them yet, this is the safest pick of the week.
Washington (+13.5) @ Denver - Alas, Denver is no longer available to us. Double digit favorites at home win over 80% of the time. This game looks like an above 80% probability of the home team winning. If you have the Broncos available, this one is safe as well.
Buffalo (+12.5) @ New Orleans - Now, this is a game that we're interested in. Why? Because we have the Saints available to us. This one looks like a lock as well.
Seattle (-10.5) @ St. Louis - This is the fourth game with a double digit favorite. The Rams are without starting QB Sam Bradford. The Seahawks are not quite the same team on the road as they are at home. But this is the Rams we're talking about. Another safe pick if you've got it.
Green Bay (-9.5) @ Minnesota - This is a division game. The favorite is on the road. Two things we like to stay away from if possible. But if you saw the mess that the Vikings offense has become on Monday night.......Mercy. Who knows who is going to start at QB for Minnesota now with the Josh Freeman concussion situation. But does it really matter? The Pack is another safe pick.
The Pick
For us, it's easy. New Orleans. Of the five games profiled, the Saints are the only team we have available to us. If any of these five teams are available to you, we think they are all safe.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 7
So far, we have used Indianapolis, Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis and San Francisco. If you are still with us, you are still in.
On to Week 7.
Cleveland (+10.5) @ Green Bay - The only double digit spread of the week. We don't see where the Pack loses this game. The best bet of the week.
Buffalo (+8.5) @ Miami - The Dolphins hold little future value at this point. This could be the best bet to pick Miami. Our only trepidation on this game is that it is a division game.
San Diego (-7.5) @ Jacksonville - OK, so picking against the Jags has been a good ploy all season. Probably is here as well. However, Jacksonville showed signs of life against Denver last week and the Chargers are making a west-to-east cross country trip. We will pass.
Houston (+6.5) @ Kansas City - We are surprised the spread on this one is not more. The Texans have completely fallen apart and are now without Matt Schaub (though that may not be a bad thing). But their backup came in and promptly threw a pick six. All that being said, this game scares us just a bit.
The Pick
We are very tempted to go with Miami or Kansas City. However, we are going with the safer pick in Green Bay.
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 5
If you've made it this far in your survivor pool, congratulations. But it only gets tougher from here.
We are still in and have used the Colts, Ravens, Seahawks and Broncos in the first four weeks. We will still explore games that those teams are in, but will concentrate on who we have left.
This week scares us, we're not afraid to admit. But it does feature some solid games to pick from.
Jacksonville (+11.5) @ St. Louis - Good news, bad news here. Good news: double digit home favorites win over 80% of the time. Bad news: the Rams are not a good football team. Good news: the Jaguars are worse.
NY Jets (+8.5) @ Atlanta - The Falcons may be the best 1-3 team in the league, for whatever that's worth. The Jets, at 2-2, are lucky to be there. Atlanta probably doesn't lose two in a row at home, although the Jets defense is for real. The offense on the other hand?
Denver (-7.5) @ Dallas - Based on Philip Rivers and the Chargers shredding the Cowboy defense for over 400 passing yards and that Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for over 347,000 yards and 168 touchdowns (stats may be off a bit), this should not be as close as the 7.5 point spread. Denver is off our board, but the Broncos would be a solid pick if you have them available.
Detroit (+6.5) @ Green Bay - We like to stay away from division games when we can. While we think Green Bay is a solid pick, we like other options better. And the Pack has much better value in future games.
Houston (+6.5) @ San Francisco - Just stay away from this game. Both teams are way too unpredictable.
The Pick
As much as St. Louis makes us nervous, Jacksonville is just too awful. Plus, the Rams have absolutely no value down the road.
We are still in and have used the Colts, Ravens, Seahawks and Broncos in the first four weeks. We will still explore games that those teams are in, but will concentrate on who we have left.
This week scares us, we're not afraid to admit. But it does feature some solid games to pick from.
Jacksonville (+11.5) @ St. Louis - Good news, bad news here. Good news: double digit home favorites win over 80% of the time. Bad news: the Rams are not a good football team. Good news: the Jaguars are worse.
NY Jets (+8.5) @ Atlanta - The Falcons may be the best 1-3 team in the league, for whatever that's worth. The Jets, at 2-2, are lucky to be there. Atlanta probably doesn't lose two in a row at home, although the Jets defense is for real. The offense on the other hand?
Denver (-7.5) @ Dallas - Based on Philip Rivers and the Chargers shredding the Cowboy defense for over 400 passing yards and that Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for over 347,000 yards and 168 touchdowns (stats may be off a bit), this should not be as close as the 7.5 point spread. Denver is off our board, but the Broncos would be a solid pick if you have them available.
Detroit (+6.5) @ Green Bay - We like to stay away from division games when we can. While we think Green Bay is a solid pick, we like other options better. And the Pack has much better value in future games.
Houston (+6.5) @ San Francisco - Just stay away from this game. Both teams are way too unpredictable.
The Pick
As much as St. Louis makes us nervous, Jacksonville is just too awful. Plus, the Rams have absolutely no value down the road.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 4
We have now used Indy, Baltimore and Seattle as we survived the first three weeks of the NFL season.
This weeks games have one fairly safe pick and a whole slew of iffy selections. There is one sleeper that intrigues us as well.
Philadelphia (+10.5) @ Denver - If you still have the Broncos available (and we do), that is the safest game on the slate this week. Peyton Manning may throw for 12,000 yards this season with 95 touchdowns. And that is only a slight exaggeration. We just don't see the Eagles putting up much of a fight at Mile High. The only thing we don't like about this game is Denver coming off a short week. But having both games at home, we're not too worried about the Broncos.
Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Jacksonville - The Colts looked very good in San Francisco last week. The Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars. On paper, this should be no contest. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective), the games are played on the field. Just ask those that picked Minnesota over Cleveland last week. That's what makes these survivor games so tough. We don't like this game for a few reasons: Road favorite, division game, Indy coming off a very physical West Coast game, now traveling to East Coast. The Colts are off our board since we have already used them, so there is no decision for us. But we would stay away from this one.
Miami (+6.5) @ New Orleans - A battle of two 3-0 teams. We just don't get why anyone would risk this game with much better possibilities out there. One person who writes about this stuff is actually making the Saints his pick. And he has Denver available. Says he's saving the Broncos for Week 6. What if he doesn't make it to Week 6? We generally stay away from the Monday nighters if we can. And we think the Dolphins are for real. Miami may not pull the upset, but we are not taking that chance.
Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Cleveland - Division game. On the road. And did anybody see what happened in Minnesota last week? No thank you.
New York Jets (+3.5) @ Tennessee - This is the sleeper game we mentioned earlier. The Titan defense looks like it can play. Geno Smith looks like a rookie in pressure situations. With wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a road loss to Houston, we really don't know what to make of the Titans quite yet, but they are always in the game. We would gamble on this game if it weren't still early in the season and such a good game still available to us.
The Pick
We're going chalk. Take the Broncos and live to see Week 5.
This weeks games have one fairly safe pick and a whole slew of iffy selections. There is one sleeper that intrigues us as well.
Philadelphia (+10.5) @ Denver - If you still have the Broncos available (and we do), that is the safest game on the slate this week. Peyton Manning may throw for 12,000 yards this season with 95 touchdowns. And that is only a slight exaggeration. We just don't see the Eagles putting up much of a fight at Mile High. The only thing we don't like about this game is Denver coming off a short week. But having both games at home, we're not too worried about the Broncos.
Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Jacksonville - The Colts looked very good in San Francisco last week. The Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars. On paper, this should be no contest. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective), the games are played on the field. Just ask those that picked Minnesota over Cleveland last week. That's what makes these survivor games so tough. We don't like this game for a few reasons: Road favorite, division game, Indy coming off a very physical West Coast game, now traveling to East Coast. The Colts are off our board since we have already used them, so there is no decision for us. But we would stay away from this one.
Miami (+6.5) @ New Orleans - A battle of two 3-0 teams. We just don't get why anyone would risk this game with much better possibilities out there. One person who writes about this stuff is actually making the Saints his pick. And he has Denver available. Says he's saving the Broncos for Week 6. What if he doesn't make it to Week 6? We generally stay away from the Monday nighters if we can. And we think the Dolphins are for real. Miami may not pull the upset, but we are not taking that chance.
Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Cleveland - Division game. On the road. And did anybody see what happened in Minnesota last week? No thank you.
New York Jets (+3.5) @ Tennessee - This is the sleeper game we mentioned earlier. The Titan defense looks like it can play. Geno Smith looks like a rookie in pressure situations. With wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a road loss to Houston, we really don't know what to make of the Titans quite yet, but they are always in the game. We would gamble on this game if it weren't still early in the season and such a good game still available to us.
The Pick
We're going chalk. Take the Broncos and live to see Week 5.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week 2 Pick
Anyone who was not nervous at some point during week one picked Denver on Thursday night and was sitting back laughing at everyone else. The Sunday and Monday games were crazy.
We sweated out the Indianapolis win over Oakland and survived to week two.
With all of the week one results in, we are even less confident going into week two.
Here's how we see things shaping up:
NY Jets (+12.5) @ New England - Largest early spread of the week. We don't like that that this game is on Thursday. Strange things happen in short weeks. But we feel this most likely benefits the Patriots more than the Jets. Despite last week's win, the Jets are a team in disarray. And New England seems like a team more likely to be ready after a short week. Early picks are heavy on the Patriots.
Tennessee (+8.5) @ Houston - The Texans barely escaped the late Monday game with a win. The Titans played surprisingly well in their upset of Pittsburgh Houston will have a short week coming off the late Monday night game in San Diego.
Washington (+7.5) @ Green Bay - Robert Griffin III looked very rusty in the first half of the Redskins' Monday night game. He looked much better in the 2nd half. The Packers lost to a superior San Francisco team on the road. Again, Washington will have a short week and has to go on the road.
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Baltimore - The Ravens' defense looked bad against Denver. But the Broncos do have Peyton Manning. The Browns lost to Miami. At home.
Jacksonville (+5.5) @ Oakland - We can't believe we are actually talking about this game. But the Terelle Pryor-led Raiders took Indianapolis to the gun. And the Jaguars were absolutely atrocious at home against Kansas City. We are quite confident this will be the only time Oakland is mentioned positively regarding Survivor Pools.
The Thought Process:
While Houston is probably a pretty safe pick, coming off the Monday night game and the fact that they still face both Oakland and Jacksonville later in the season, we are passing on this one. While it is still way to early to make picks based on who a team faces in the future, we were going to pass on this one anyway. The future games are only a bonus.
Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers. Washington has RGIII. We'll take Rodgers any day. But with RGIII anything is possible. If he catches fire, the Pack will be running around trying to stop him all day long. We really think Green Bay wins going away, but there are better picks and the RGIII factor is enough to scare us away from this game.
Oakland is very, very tempting. If this were week five or six, then we're probably pulling the trigger on this one. But this early in the season, we are really in survival mode, move on to the next week and deal with things as they come.
That leaves two games. New England/NYJ and Cleveland/Baltimore
Both games are divisional games, which we like to stay away from. But these seem like the best best bets to survive. The Browns and the Jets are not very good. The Patriots and Ravens both lost key pieces to their teams during the offseason. New England has Bill Belichek, and after that close call in Buffalo, he'll have the team ready to play. Baltimore has had extra time to prepare since they played the opening Thursday game. The Patriots have more future value than the Ravens.
All that being said...........
The Pick:
Baltimore. With the other games being eliminated for various reasons, we think the Ravens and Patriots are the surest picks for week two. We don't thing either pick could go wrong. We are going with Baltimore based on future value. Yes, we know what we said earlier about future value. But when that is the tiebreaker in deciding whom you pick, it's relevant.
We sweated out the Indianapolis win over Oakland and survived to week two.
With all of the week one results in, we are even less confident going into week two.
Here's how we see things shaping up:
NY Jets (+12.5) @ New England - Largest early spread of the week. We don't like that that this game is on Thursday. Strange things happen in short weeks. But we feel this most likely benefits the Patriots more than the Jets. Despite last week's win, the Jets are a team in disarray. And New England seems like a team more likely to be ready after a short week. Early picks are heavy on the Patriots.
Tennessee (+8.5) @ Houston - The Texans barely escaped the late Monday game with a win. The Titans played surprisingly well in their upset of Pittsburgh Houston will have a short week coming off the late Monday night game in San Diego.
Washington (+7.5) @ Green Bay - Robert Griffin III looked very rusty in the first half of the Redskins' Monday night game. He looked much better in the 2nd half. The Packers lost to a superior San Francisco team on the road. Again, Washington will have a short week and has to go on the road.
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Baltimore - The Ravens' defense looked bad against Denver. But the Broncos do have Peyton Manning. The Browns lost to Miami. At home.
Jacksonville (+5.5) @ Oakland - We can't believe we are actually talking about this game. But the Terelle Pryor-led Raiders took Indianapolis to the gun. And the Jaguars were absolutely atrocious at home against Kansas City. We are quite confident this will be the only time Oakland is mentioned positively regarding Survivor Pools.
The Thought Process:
While Houston is probably a pretty safe pick, coming off the Monday night game and the fact that they still face both Oakland and Jacksonville later in the season, we are passing on this one. While it is still way to early to make picks based on who a team faces in the future, we were going to pass on this one anyway. The future games are only a bonus.
Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers. Washington has RGIII. We'll take Rodgers any day. But with RGIII anything is possible. If he catches fire, the Pack will be running around trying to stop him all day long. We really think Green Bay wins going away, but there are better picks and the RGIII factor is enough to scare us away from this game.
Oakland is very, very tempting. If this were week five or six, then we're probably pulling the trigger on this one. But this early in the season, we are really in survival mode, move on to the next week and deal with things as they come.
That leaves two games. New England/NYJ and Cleveland/Baltimore
Both games are divisional games, which we like to stay away from. But these seem like the best best bets to survive. The Browns and the Jets are not very good. The Patriots and Ravens both lost key pieces to their teams during the offseason. New England has Bill Belichek, and after that close call in Buffalo, he'll have the team ready to play. Baltimore has had extra time to prepare since they played the opening Thursday game. The Patriots have more future value than the Ravens.
All that being said...........
The Pick:
Baltimore. With the other games being eliminated for various reasons, we think the Ravens and Patriots are the surest picks for week two. We don't thing either pick could go wrong. We are going with Baltimore based on future value. Yes, we know what we said earlier about future value. But when that is the tiebreaker in deciding whom you pick, it's relevant.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor Pool: Week One
Here in the Cheap Seats, we have entered an NFL Survivor Pool for the fourth year and will be keeping everyone abreast of our picks, reasoning and results. Let it be known right up front, we have not done well the three previous years. Last year was an unmitigated disaster (thanks Patriots), although it wasn't entirely our fault. Yeah, right.
For those unfamiliar with Survivor games, it's really quite simple. Everyone in the game puts up an entry fee. Last person still alive wins the whole thing.
How the game works:
Everyone entered picks one team to win their game that week. The team you pick wins, you survive. Your team loses, you're out. But the catch is that you can only pick a team one time per season. Sure it would have been real nice to pick New England every week during their 16-0 regular season. But once you pick a team to win, you can not pick that team again. Ever. Until next season. Or the playoffs, if it gets that far.
The first week always scares us. We don't really know what to expect. There are always the surprise teams that come out of nowhere and the disappointing teams that fall on their face. The pre-season is of no help whatsoever.
We try to stick to a couple of loose rules when making our picks. Stay away from games involving division rivals and stay away from picking teams on the road.
Week One offers some fairly good choices.
Oakland (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - Some pools restrict the number of times you can pick against a team. Ours does not. So picking whoever is playing the Raiders every week is an option. The Colts at home against Oakland seems to be the surest pick on the board.
New England (-9.5) @ Buffalo - Yes, it is an intradivisional game. Yes, the favorite is on the road. But it's the Bills and the Patriots. What could go wrong, right?
Baltimore (+8.5) @ Denver - The spread on this one surprised us. The defending Super Champs more than a touchdown underdog? Of course the oddsmakers in Vegas know much more about this than we do. It is also the opening game of the season on a Thursday night. Thanks, but we will pass.
Tennessee (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh - The Steelers at home are always tough. The Titans don't look to be all that good this season.
The Thought Process:
There are couple of ways to go. And a couple we will stay away from.
We will pass on the Broncos for the reasons stated above and Denver has the highest future value of the four teams.
We will also not go with Patriots, for two reasons. Strange things can happen in Orchard Park and New England has the second highest future value.
That leaves Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
The Colts seem to be the surest pick. That has been played out with early picks in Survivor Pools. Indianapolis has an astronomical 41% pick rate of those that have already made picks. So going with the Colts means going along with the crowd and everyone moves along into week 2. On the flip side, Indy also has the lowest future value of any of the four teams.
The Steelers only have an 8% pick rate. So if Indy somehow goes down (doubtful, but anything is possible), the pools will be cut down considerably. Pittsburgh does have more future value than the Indy.
The Pick:
In the end, the name of the game is Survivor. With the Colts having the best chance to win and a lower future value, we're putting in the pick for Indianapolis.
For those unfamiliar with Survivor games, it's really quite simple. Everyone in the game puts up an entry fee. Last person still alive wins the whole thing.
How the game works:
Everyone entered picks one team to win their game that week. The team you pick wins, you survive. Your team loses, you're out. But the catch is that you can only pick a team one time per season. Sure it would have been real nice to pick New England every week during their 16-0 regular season. But once you pick a team to win, you can not pick that team again. Ever. Until next season. Or the playoffs, if it gets that far.
The first week always scares us. We don't really know what to expect. There are always the surprise teams that come out of nowhere and the disappointing teams that fall on their face. The pre-season is of no help whatsoever.
We try to stick to a couple of loose rules when making our picks. Stay away from games involving division rivals and stay away from picking teams on the road.
Week One offers some fairly good choices.
Oakland (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - Some pools restrict the number of times you can pick against a team. Ours does not. So picking whoever is playing the Raiders every week is an option. The Colts at home against Oakland seems to be the surest pick on the board.
New England (-9.5) @ Buffalo - Yes, it is an intradivisional game. Yes, the favorite is on the road. But it's the Bills and the Patriots. What could go wrong, right?
Baltimore (+8.5) @ Denver - The spread on this one surprised us. The defending Super Champs more than a touchdown underdog? Of course the oddsmakers in Vegas know much more about this than we do. It is also the opening game of the season on a Thursday night. Thanks, but we will pass.
Tennessee (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh - The Steelers at home are always tough. The Titans don't look to be all that good this season.
The Thought Process:
There are couple of ways to go. And a couple we will stay away from.
We will pass on the Broncos for the reasons stated above and Denver has the highest future value of the four teams.
We will also not go with Patriots, for two reasons. Strange things can happen in Orchard Park and New England has the second highest future value.
That leaves Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
The Colts seem to be the surest pick. That has been played out with early picks in Survivor Pools. Indianapolis has an astronomical 41% pick rate of those that have already made picks. So going with the Colts means going along with the crowd and everyone moves along into week 2. On the flip side, Indy also has the lowest future value of any of the four teams.
The Steelers only have an 8% pick rate. So if Indy somehow goes down (doubtful, but anything is possible), the pools will be cut down considerably. Pittsburgh does have more future value than the Indy.
The Pick:
In the end, the name of the game is Survivor. With the Colts having the best chance to win and a lower future value, we're putting in the pick for Indianapolis.
Friday, September 21, 2012
2012 NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick
Our pick of New England last week turned out to be a big flop. We were tempted to take the Giants, hindsight being 20/20 and all, should have. That one was also too close for comfort.
Everything that says you should pick a team aligned with the Patriots/Cardinals game last week. Double digit home favorite. Inter-conference opponent. West Coast (almost) team going east in an early start time. Every cliche in the book is apropos here. Any given Sunday. That's why they play games. Etc.
Ninety nine times out of 100, we would make the same pick. These things happen. So we are officially out (as is close to 50% of the field). However, this will not stop us from further analysis. So on to Week 3.
Stay Far, Far Away
Tampa Bay (+8) @ Dallas - After last week's meltdown in the Pacific Northwest by the Cowboys and Tampa's near upset of NYG, we're just not comfortable going with the home favorite here.
Jacksonville (+3) @ Indianapolis - We have absolutely no idea what may happen in this game. Two young QBs on bad teams. Nuff said.
NYJ (-1.5) @ Miami - Division game. Favorite on the road. We don't think the Jets are as good as they think they and the Dolphins are as bad as everyone thinks they are.
Cincinnati (+3) @ Washington - This game is way too evenly matched to risk a pick. That is all.
Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee - Never pick against Detroit. Never trust Detroit unless you have to. We think the Lions will pull it out, but would not risk it. Chris Johnson could figure out how to run at any moment, we would hate for it to be this week if we picked Detroit.
Philadelphia (-3) @ Arizona - The Eagles and Mike Vick have been very, very lucky the past two weeks. The Cards are a very good defensive team. Their offense, however, leaves much to be desired.
Atlanta (+3) @ San Diego - This is pretty much a pick 'em. Nothing to see here. Move on.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland - James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are out for the Steelers. Enough of a reason for us to stay away.
Houston (-2) @ Denver - Peyton Manning will not throw three picks again. The Texans are going from sea level to altitude. We think the line is too tight and that Houston will prevail, but there are better options.
New England (+2.5) @ Baltimore - Both teams coming off games they could have (should have?) won. This should be a great game to watch. Not a great game to pick.
Green Bay (-3) @ Seattle - Strange things happen in the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks defense is good. The Packers have not looked like world beaters up to this point.
Looks Good on Paper
Kansas City (+8.5) @ New Orleans - We confess, this should be a walk in the park for the Saints. Should be. The Chiefs have been blown out twice. But the New Orleans defense has been a sieve. A game between to 0-2 teams is not where we want to put our faith in Week 3.
Worth a Look
St. Louis (+7) @ Chicago - A lot of people are down on the Bears and Jay Cutler. Sam Bradford and the Rams looked pretty good against the Redskins last week. Chicago has three extra days. And they're a pretty darn good football team.
Buffalo (-3) @ Cleveland - What is that you say? You think we're crazy? Maybe. Or maybe like a fox. This is tough week to pick. We think that debacle against the Jets was an aberration for the Bills. They are better than that. The Browns are..........well, the Browns. Brandon Weeden may or may turn out to be a good NFL QB. Right now he is not.
San Francisco (-7) @ Minnesota - The 'Niners may be the best team in the NFC. This game screams trap. But Jim Harbaugh is the coach. Yes, it's a road game. But are the alternatives any more attractive?
The Pick
This, my friends, is a tough week to call. We are a bit conflicted. New Orleans should be the pick, but they have been a hot mess thus far. Jay Cutler is hard to trust with the Bears. Buffalo, really? That's how tough this week is. San Francisco on the road.
Wow. We really want go with the Bills, but in the end, San Fran is the pick. We just don't see the 'Niners having a meltdown in Minnesota.
Everything that says you should pick a team aligned with the Patriots/Cardinals game last week. Double digit home favorite. Inter-conference opponent. West Coast (almost) team going east in an early start time. Every cliche in the book is apropos here. Any given Sunday. That's why they play games. Etc.
Ninety nine times out of 100, we would make the same pick. These things happen. So we are officially out (as is close to 50% of the field). However, this will not stop us from further analysis. So on to Week 3.
Stay Far, Far Away
Tampa Bay (+8) @ Dallas - After last week's meltdown in the Pacific Northwest by the Cowboys and Tampa's near upset of NYG, we're just not comfortable going with the home favorite here.
Jacksonville (+3) @ Indianapolis - We have absolutely no idea what may happen in this game. Two young QBs on bad teams. Nuff said.
NYJ (-1.5) @ Miami - Division game. Favorite on the road. We don't think the Jets are as good as they think they and the Dolphins are as bad as everyone thinks they are.
Cincinnati (+3) @ Washington - This game is way too evenly matched to risk a pick. That is all.
Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee - Never pick against Detroit. Never trust Detroit unless you have to. We think the Lions will pull it out, but would not risk it. Chris Johnson could figure out how to run at any moment, we would hate for it to be this week if we picked Detroit.
Philadelphia (-3) @ Arizona - The Eagles and Mike Vick have been very, very lucky the past two weeks. The Cards are a very good defensive team. Their offense, however, leaves much to be desired.
Atlanta (+3) @ San Diego - This is pretty much a pick 'em. Nothing to see here. Move on.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland - James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are out for the Steelers. Enough of a reason for us to stay away.
Houston (-2) @ Denver - Peyton Manning will not throw three picks again. The Texans are going from sea level to altitude. We think the line is too tight and that Houston will prevail, but there are better options.
New England (+2.5) @ Baltimore - Both teams coming off games they could have (should have?) won. This should be a great game to watch. Not a great game to pick.
Green Bay (-3) @ Seattle - Strange things happen in the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks defense is good. The Packers have not looked like world beaters up to this point.
Looks Good on Paper
Kansas City (+8.5) @ New Orleans - We confess, this should be a walk in the park for the Saints. Should be. The Chiefs have been blown out twice. But the New Orleans defense has been a sieve. A game between to 0-2 teams is not where we want to put our faith in Week 3.
Worth a Look
St. Louis (+7) @ Chicago - A lot of people are down on the Bears and Jay Cutler. Sam Bradford and the Rams looked pretty good against the Redskins last week. Chicago has three extra days. And they're a pretty darn good football team.
Buffalo (-3) @ Cleveland - What is that you say? You think we're crazy? Maybe. Or maybe like a fox. This is tough week to pick. We think that debacle against the Jets was an aberration for the Bills. They are better than that. The Browns are..........well, the Browns. Brandon Weeden may or may turn out to be a good NFL QB. Right now he is not.
San Francisco (-7) @ Minnesota - The 'Niners may be the best team in the NFC. This game screams trap. But Jim Harbaugh is the coach. Yes, it's a road game. But are the alternatives any more attractive?
The Pick
This, my friends, is a tough week to call. We are a bit conflicted. New Orleans should be the pick, but they have been a hot mess thus far. Jay Cutler is hard to trust with the Bears. Buffalo, really? That's how tough this week is. San Francisco on the road.
Wow. We really want go with the Bills, but in the end, San Fran is the pick. We just don't see the 'Niners having a meltdown in Minnesota.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
NFL Survivor Pick: 2012 Week Two
This week's pick will come a bit earlier than normal as the Cheap Seats prepare to actually occupy some seats this weekend at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Week 2 in the NFL season is almost as hard to call as Week 1. The trick is to not get too caught up in what happened in Week 1, either good or bad. Too small of a sample size to glean any real knowledge.
Since this is our first foray in providing a weekly analysis, we are still tweaking the format. Should we continue to provide commentary on each game? We think, yes. While it may seem frivolous at this point, it will become much more important as the season progresses and more and more teams come off your board each week.
A bit more on our philosophy: We scour the web for recommendations from so-called experts. Take these recommendations into careful consideration. Use our own personal knowledge. Then come to a conclusion. We would be remiss if we did not look for other recommendations before making our own. There are many opinions out there. Ours is but one.
Wouldn't Touch with a Ten Foot Pole
Kansas City (+3) @ Buffalo - Both teams miserably under-achieved in the first week. Which team, if either turns it around? We don't know.
New Orleans (-2.5) @ Carolina - Division game with the favorite on the road. Still don't know what to make of the Saints with all the off-season drama. Will Cam Newton have a sophomore slump for the Panthers? Maybe, maybe not.. But the first week was not kind.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Indianapolis - Andrew Luck played like a rookie in his first start for the Colts. Even with Adrian Peterson apparently at full strength, the Vikings are just not that good.
Oakland (-3) @ Miami - The Raiders are probably better than the Dolphins, but are making a big time zone jump. Ryan Tannehill may or may not be as bad as he performed last week against Houston.
Baltimore (+2.5) @ Philadelphia - Not real sure why Philly is favored after that atrocious game last week in Cleveland. And the Ravens looked pretty good against Cincy.
Washington (-3) @ St. Louis - As good as Robert Griffin III was against New Orleans last week, remember, he is still a rookie. Not enough trust yet for us.
Dalllas (-3) @ Seattle - This may look like a good pick, but it's a long trip for the Cowboys and strange things can happen in the Pacific Northwest.
Denver (+3) @ Atlanta - Still not enough data on either team for us. Also, it's the Monday nighter, which we try to avoid.
Looks Good on Paper
Cleveland (+7) @ Cincinnati - This may be the best chance to pick the Bengals all year. But this is a division game and goofy things happen in division games. Were this game played later in the season with less options available, we may have recommended it. But this being Survivor, it's too early to risk it.
Houston (-7) @ Jacksonville - We avoid picking road teams when possible. And this could possibly be a trap game for the Texans, who have the Peyton Manning led Broncos next week.
Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego - Long trip for the Titans. This almost makes it to one our recommended games, but we still don't trust the Chargers.
NY Jets (+5) @ Pittsburgh - We don't get it. Some sites are recommending picking the Steelers this week. We don't know if the Jets are that good or Buffalo is that bad. Same goes with the Broncos who beat the Steelers. Also Pittsburgh is coming off a short week. In good conscience, we cannot recommend this game.
Detroit (+7) @ San Francisco - The Niners are good. The Lions are not as bad (Matthew Stafford) as last week indicated. San Fran might have a bit of a let down after the Green Bay game last week. Detroit has something to prove. This is not a bad pick, just not one we would make in Week 2.
Our Recommendations
Arizona (+13.5) @ New England - This is obviously the safest pick of the week. Also the biggest spread of the week. The Patriots have much more future value than any other team. This is obviously the first opportunity to use some strategy in you pool.
Tampa Bay (+7) @ NY Giants - The Giants have had extra time to work out the kinks that caused their season-opening loss to Dallas in the Wednesday nighter. The Bucs looked better than expected in their win over Carolina. Josh Freeman looked more like the Josh Freeman of 2010 than 2011, which is a good sign. But I don't see the defending Super Bowl champs starting 0-2 at home.
The Pick
Houston is off the board for us as that was our Week 1 pick. While we are awfully tempted to go with the G-Men, New England is our pick. While we may wish we had the Patriots later in the season, nothing is guaranteed, so we will go with the pick that gives us the best chance to survive. Besides if, heaven forbid, Brady were to go down sometime in the next few weeks, all that future value goes out the window.
Week 2 in the NFL season is almost as hard to call as Week 1. The trick is to not get too caught up in what happened in Week 1, either good or bad. Too small of a sample size to glean any real knowledge.
Since this is our first foray in providing a weekly analysis, we are still tweaking the format. Should we continue to provide commentary on each game? We think, yes. While it may seem frivolous at this point, it will become much more important as the season progresses and more and more teams come off your board each week.
A bit more on our philosophy: We scour the web for recommendations from so-called experts. Take these recommendations into careful consideration. Use our own personal knowledge. Then come to a conclusion. We would be remiss if we did not look for other recommendations before making our own. There are many opinions out there. Ours is but one.
Wouldn't Touch with a Ten Foot Pole
Kansas City (+3) @ Buffalo - Both teams miserably under-achieved in the first week. Which team, if either turns it around? We don't know.
New Orleans (-2.5) @ Carolina - Division game with the favorite on the road. Still don't know what to make of the Saints with all the off-season drama. Will Cam Newton have a sophomore slump for the Panthers? Maybe, maybe not.. But the first week was not kind.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Indianapolis - Andrew Luck played like a rookie in his first start for the Colts. Even with Adrian Peterson apparently at full strength, the Vikings are just not that good.
Oakland (-3) @ Miami - The Raiders are probably better than the Dolphins, but are making a big time zone jump. Ryan Tannehill may or may not be as bad as he performed last week against Houston.
Baltimore (+2.5) @ Philadelphia - Not real sure why Philly is favored after that atrocious game last week in Cleveland. And the Ravens looked pretty good against Cincy.
Washington (-3) @ St. Louis - As good as Robert Griffin III was against New Orleans last week, remember, he is still a rookie. Not enough trust yet for us.
Dalllas (-3) @ Seattle - This may look like a good pick, but it's a long trip for the Cowboys and strange things can happen in the Pacific Northwest.
Denver (+3) @ Atlanta - Still not enough data on either team for us. Also, it's the Monday nighter, which we try to avoid.
Looks Good on Paper
Cleveland (+7) @ Cincinnati - This may be the best chance to pick the Bengals all year. But this is a division game and goofy things happen in division games. Were this game played later in the season with less options available, we may have recommended it. But this being Survivor, it's too early to risk it.
Houston (-7) @ Jacksonville - We avoid picking road teams when possible. And this could possibly be a trap game for the Texans, who have the Peyton Manning led Broncos next week.
Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego - Long trip for the Titans. This almost makes it to one our recommended games, but we still don't trust the Chargers.
NY Jets (+5) @ Pittsburgh - We don't get it. Some sites are recommending picking the Steelers this week. We don't know if the Jets are that good or Buffalo is that bad. Same goes with the Broncos who beat the Steelers. Also Pittsburgh is coming off a short week. In good conscience, we cannot recommend this game.
Detroit (+7) @ San Francisco - The Niners are good. The Lions are not as bad (Matthew Stafford) as last week indicated. San Fran might have a bit of a let down after the Green Bay game last week. Detroit has something to prove. This is not a bad pick, just not one we would make in Week 2.
Our Recommendations
Arizona (+13.5) @ New England - This is obviously the safest pick of the week. Also the biggest spread of the week. The Patriots have much more future value than any other team. This is obviously the first opportunity to use some strategy in you pool.
Tampa Bay (+7) @ NY Giants - The Giants have had extra time to work out the kinks that caused their season-opening loss to Dallas in the Wednesday nighter. The Bucs looked better than expected in their win over Carolina. Josh Freeman looked more like the Josh Freeman of 2010 than 2011, which is a good sign. But I don't see the defending Super Bowl champs starting 0-2 at home.
The Pick
Houston is off the board for us as that was our Week 1 pick. While we are awfully tempted to go with the G-Men, New England is our pick. While we may wish we had the Patriots later in the season, nothing is guaranteed, so we will go with the pick that gives us the best chance to survive. Besides if, heaven forbid, Brady were to go down sometime in the next few weeks, all that future value goes out the window.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
NFL Survivor Pick: Week 2 Preliminary
If there is anything that comes close to the Week One trepidation in picking NFL Survivor pools, it is Week Two. The key is not to over react to anything that happened in Week One. Week Two is still a time to play it safe in our opinion.
We will have full analysis later this week, but with the NFL playing Thursday games most weeks, we want to give some quick picks before the Thursday games in case your picks are due before the first game of the week.
As for the Thursday night game, Chicago/Green Bay? Stay away. The Packers will probably be better than their season-opening loss to San Francisco indicated and are early 5 1/2 point favorites over the Bears. With the short week, this is one to stay away from this early in the season.
The safest pick this week is New England over Arizona. Others worth considering are NYG over Tampa, San Francisco over Detroit, Houston over Jacksonville and Cincinnati over Cleveland.
If you want to just survive this week and not worry about any considerations later in the season, then the Patriots are your pick. Depending the level of risk you're comfortable with, the Giants are a good play. This may be the only time that the Bengals will be a good play all season, but it is a division game. The Niners could come down a bit after the big win over Green Bay and the Lions should be better (Matt Stafford we're talking to you) than the squeaker they pulled out in week one. The Texans should win, but are on the road.
The detailed analysis along with our pick will come later this week.
We will have full analysis later this week, but with the NFL playing Thursday games most weeks, we want to give some quick picks before the Thursday games in case your picks are due before the first game of the week.
As for the Thursday night game, Chicago/Green Bay? Stay away. The Packers will probably be better than their season-opening loss to San Francisco indicated and are early 5 1/2 point favorites over the Bears. With the short week, this is one to stay away from this early in the season.
The safest pick this week is New England over Arizona. Others worth considering are NYG over Tampa, San Francisco over Detroit, Houston over Jacksonville and Cincinnati over Cleveland.
If you want to just survive this week and not worry about any considerations later in the season, then the Patriots are your pick. Depending the level of risk you're comfortable with, the Giants are a good play. This may be the only time that the Bengals will be a good play all season, but it is a division game. The Niners could come down a bit after the big win over Green Bay and the Lions should be better (Matt Stafford we're talking to you) than the squeaker they pulled out in week one. The Texans should win, but are on the road.
The detailed analysis along with our pick will come later this week.
Friday, September 7, 2012
NFL Survivor Pool Pick: 2012 Week One
Want our week one pick for our NFL Survivor Pool? Well, you're going to have to read through some highly informative and mildly entertaining analysis to get to it (or just scroll to the bottom, whichever you prefer). And it might not even be highly informative.
We hate week one. The preseason is useless for predicting what will happen in the regular season. Well, the preseason is actually useless for more reasons than but that's another post. Nobody knows who will surprise by being better than expected or which team with high expectations will lay an egg.
If at all possible, our strategy is not to pick road teams or games involving teams in the same division. That is not always possible, but it is a good place to start.
Not Touching with a Ten Foot Pole:
Atlanta (-3) @ Kansas City - Road game for the Falcons. This one is just doesn't make sense in a survivor setting. Much better choices.
Jacksonville (+3) @ Minnesota - Both of these have so many issues. The Viking's Adrian Peterson (off-season surgery) and the Jaguar's Maurice Jones-Drew (holdout), each team's start running back, will not be at full strength.
Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Denver - The Peyton Manning era begins in Denver. Who knows what to expect. Out of either team actually.
Buffalo (+3) @ NY Jets - What a hot mess the NYJ QB situation is. The Bills spent the offseason getting better (at least on paper). No thank you.
Seattle (-3) @ Arizona - Rookie QB for the Seahawks. Never know what to expect in that situation. Plus the favorite is on the road.
Carolina (-3) @ Tampa Bay - Division game with the favorite on the road. Nuff said.
San Diego (+1.5) @ Oakland - We don't even know what to say about this game. Therefore, we will stay far, far away.
Kinda Looks Good on Paper:
San Francisco (+5) @ Green Bay - The Pack at Lambeau is usually a pretty good choice. But the 'Niners play tough defense and there are safer picks out there.
New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee - The Tom Brady led Patriots are, well, the Patriots. They're good. But they're also on the road. Tennessee is not horrible. But still, no need to risk that much in week one.
Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Baltimore - Division game. Plus, we don't thing the Ravens are as good as last year's record indicated.
More Than a Touchdown Favorites:
Philadelphia (-9.5) @ Cleveland - This should not be close, but..........we don't trust Michael Vick to stay healthy at any point in the season. Who's to say what could happen if he goes down? Plus, this a road game for the favorite. It's probably safe enough, but this is week one.
Indianapolis (+9.5) @ Chicago - The Colts without Manning last year were awful. Now Indy puts their trust in the hands of rookie Andrew Luck. How good is Luck? Pretty darn good. But this is the NFL. We don't like venturing into the unknown when we can help it.
St. Louis (+8) @ Detroit - This is the first of two games that we really like. The Rams are better, probably good enough to cover the spread, but we still like Detroit to win. The only caveat is, these are the Lions. But they are not your father's Lions.
Miami (+11.5) @ Houston - The only double digit spread of the week. The Texans' are many people's Super Bowl pick. The Dolphins seem to be in a state of disarray. This may be as close to a sure thing as there is this week.
Washington (+8) @ New Orleans - We could have easily put this in another section, but the spread precludes us from doing so. But do not touch this game. Don't even think about it. The Saints are without their head coach and defensive coordinator from last season. There is the whole bounty situation hanging over their heads. RGIII will be the starting QB for the Redskins, and who knows what he'll do. See Cam Newton from last year. This game just has too many variables for week one.
The Pick:
The name of the of game is Survivor, so the goal is to survive. For us, it comes down to Houston or Detroit. Houston seems like the surest thing (as least as much as there can be in the NFL), but we hate using such a good team in week one. On the other hand, Detroit is still Detroit and that scares us. So, from the Cheap Seats, we will go with Houston in week one.
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