Our pick of New England last week turned out to be a big flop. We were tempted to take the Giants, hindsight being 20/20 and all, should have. That one was also too close for comfort.
Everything that says you should pick a team aligned with the Patriots/Cardinals game last week. Double digit home favorite. Inter-conference opponent. West Coast (almost) team going east in an early start time. Every cliche in the book is apropos here. Any given Sunday. That's why they play games. Etc.
Ninety nine times out of 100, we would make the same pick. These things happen. So we are officially out (as is close to 50% of the field). However, this will not stop us from further analysis. So on to Week 3.
Stay Far, Far Away
Tampa Bay (+8) @ Dallas - After last week's meltdown in the Pacific Northwest by the Cowboys and Tampa's near upset of NYG, we're just not comfortable going with the home favorite here.
Jacksonville (+3) @ Indianapolis - We have absolutely no idea what may happen in this game. Two young QBs on bad teams. Nuff said.
NYJ (-1.5) @ Miami - Division game. Favorite on the road. We don't think the Jets are as good as they think they and the Dolphins are as bad as everyone thinks they are.
Cincinnati (+3) @ Washington - This game is way too evenly matched to risk a pick. That is all.
Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee - Never pick against Detroit. Never trust Detroit unless you have to. We think the Lions will pull it out, but would not risk it. Chris Johnson could figure out how to run at any moment, we would hate for it to be this week if we picked Detroit.
Philadelphia (-3) @ Arizona - The Eagles and Mike Vick have been very, very lucky the past two weeks. The Cards are a very good defensive team. Their offense, however, leaves much to be desired.
Atlanta (+3) @ San Diego - This is pretty much a pick 'em. Nothing to see here. Move on.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland - James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are out for the Steelers. Enough of a reason for us to stay away.
Houston (-2) @ Denver - Peyton Manning will not throw three picks again. The Texans are going from sea level to altitude. We think the line is too tight and that Houston will prevail, but there are better options.
New England (+2.5) @ Baltimore - Both teams coming off games they could have (should have?) won. This should be a great game to watch. Not a great game to pick.
Green Bay (-3) @ Seattle - Strange things happen in the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks defense is good. The Packers have not looked like world beaters up to this point.
Looks Good on Paper
Kansas City (+8.5) @ New Orleans - We confess, this should be a walk in the park for the Saints. Should be. The Chiefs have been blown out twice. But the New Orleans defense has been a sieve. A game between to 0-2 teams is not where we want to put our faith in Week 3.
Worth a Look
St. Louis (+7) @ Chicago - A lot of people are down on the Bears and Jay Cutler. Sam Bradford and the Rams looked pretty good against the Redskins last week. Chicago has three extra days. And they're a pretty darn good football team.
Buffalo (-3) @ Cleveland - What is that you say? You think we're crazy? Maybe. Or maybe like a fox. This is tough week to pick. We think that debacle against the Jets was an aberration for the Bills. They are better than that. The Browns are..........well, the Browns. Brandon Weeden may or may turn out to be a good NFL QB. Right now he is not.
San Francisco (-7) @ Minnesota - The 'Niners may be the best team in the NFC. This game screams trap. But Jim Harbaugh is the coach. Yes, it's a road game. But are the alternatives any more attractive?
The Pick
This, my friends, is a tough week to call. We are a bit conflicted. New Orleans should be the pick, but they have been a hot mess thus far. Jay Cutler is hard to trust with the Bears. Buffalo, really? That's how tough this week is. San Francisco on the road.
Wow. We really want go with the Bills, but in the end, San Fran is the pick. We just don't see the 'Niners having a meltdown in Minnesota.
Showing posts with label 2012 Survivor Pool. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Survivor Pool. Show all posts
Friday, September 21, 2012
Thursday, September 13, 2012
NFL Survivor Pick: 2012 Week Two
This week's pick will come a bit earlier than normal as the Cheap Seats prepare to actually occupy some seats this weekend at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Week 2 in the NFL season is almost as hard to call as Week 1. The trick is to not get too caught up in what happened in Week 1, either good or bad. Too small of a sample size to glean any real knowledge.
Since this is our first foray in providing a weekly analysis, we are still tweaking the format. Should we continue to provide commentary on each game? We think, yes. While it may seem frivolous at this point, it will become much more important as the season progresses and more and more teams come off your board each week.
A bit more on our philosophy: We scour the web for recommendations from so-called experts. Take these recommendations into careful consideration. Use our own personal knowledge. Then come to a conclusion. We would be remiss if we did not look for other recommendations before making our own. There are many opinions out there. Ours is but one.
Wouldn't Touch with a Ten Foot Pole
Kansas City (+3) @ Buffalo - Both teams miserably under-achieved in the first week. Which team, if either turns it around? We don't know.
New Orleans (-2.5) @ Carolina - Division game with the favorite on the road. Still don't know what to make of the Saints with all the off-season drama. Will Cam Newton have a sophomore slump for the Panthers? Maybe, maybe not.. But the first week was not kind.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Indianapolis - Andrew Luck played like a rookie in his first start for the Colts. Even with Adrian Peterson apparently at full strength, the Vikings are just not that good.
Oakland (-3) @ Miami - The Raiders are probably better than the Dolphins, but are making a big time zone jump. Ryan Tannehill may or may not be as bad as he performed last week against Houston.
Baltimore (+2.5) @ Philadelphia - Not real sure why Philly is favored after that atrocious game last week in Cleveland. And the Ravens looked pretty good against Cincy.
Washington (-3) @ St. Louis - As good as Robert Griffin III was against New Orleans last week, remember, he is still a rookie. Not enough trust yet for us.
Dalllas (-3) @ Seattle - This may look like a good pick, but it's a long trip for the Cowboys and strange things can happen in the Pacific Northwest.
Denver (+3) @ Atlanta - Still not enough data on either team for us. Also, it's the Monday nighter, which we try to avoid.
Looks Good on Paper
Cleveland (+7) @ Cincinnati - This may be the best chance to pick the Bengals all year. But this is a division game and goofy things happen in division games. Were this game played later in the season with less options available, we may have recommended it. But this being Survivor, it's too early to risk it.
Houston (-7) @ Jacksonville - We avoid picking road teams when possible. And this could possibly be a trap game for the Texans, who have the Peyton Manning led Broncos next week.
Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego - Long trip for the Titans. This almost makes it to one our recommended games, but we still don't trust the Chargers.
NY Jets (+5) @ Pittsburgh - We don't get it. Some sites are recommending picking the Steelers this week. We don't know if the Jets are that good or Buffalo is that bad. Same goes with the Broncos who beat the Steelers. Also Pittsburgh is coming off a short week. In good conscience, we cannot recommend this game.
Detroit (+7) @ San Francisco - The Niners are good. The Lions are not as bad (Matthew Stafford) as last week indicated. San Fran might have a bit of a let down after the Green Bay game last week. Detroit has something to prove. This is not a bad pick, just not one we would make in Week 2.
Our Recommendations
Arizona (+13.5) @ New England - This is obviously the safest pick of the week. Also the biggest spread of the week. The Patriots have much more future value than any other team. This is obviously the first opportunity to use some strategy in you pool.
Tampa Bay (+7) @ NY Giants - The Giants have had extra time to work out the kinks that caused their season-opening loss to Dallas in the Wednesday nighter. The Bucs looked better than expected in their win over Carolina. Josh Freeman looked more like the Josh Freeman of 2010 than 2011, which is a good sign. But I don't see the defending Super Bowl champs starting 0-2 at home.
The Pick
Houston is off the board for us as that was our Week 1 pick. While we are awfully tempted to go with the G-Men, New England is our pick. While we may wish we had the Patriots later in the season, nothing is guaranteed, so we will go with the pick that gives us the best chance to survive. Besides if, heaven forbid, Brady were to go down sometime in the next few weeks, all that future value goes out the window.
Week 2 in the NFL season is almost as hard to call as Week 1. The trick is to not get too caught up in what happened in Week 1, either good or bad. Too small of a sample size to glean any real knowledge.
Since this is our first foray in providing a weekly analysis, we are still tweaking the format. Should we continue to provide commentary on each game? We think, yes. While it may seem frivolous at this point, it will become much more important as the season progresses and more and more teams come off your board each week.
A bit more on our philosophy: We scour the web for recommendations from so-called experts. Take these recommendations into careful consideration. Use our own personal knowledge. Then come to a conclusion. We would be remiss if we did not look for other recommendations before making our own. There are many opinions out there. Ours is but one.
Wouldn't Touch with a Ten Foot Pole
Kansas City (+3) @ Buffalo - Both teams miserably under-achieved in the first week. Which team, if either turns it around? We don't know.
New Orleans (-2.5) @ Carolina - Division game with the favorite on the road. Still don't know what to make of the Saints with all the off-season drama. Will Cam Newton have a sophomore slump for the Panthers? Maybe, maybe not.. But the first week was not kind.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Indianapolis - Andrew Luck played like a rookie in his first start for the Colts. Even with Adrian Peterson apparently at full strength, the Vikings are just not that good.
Oakland (-3) @ Miami - The Raiders are probably better than the Dolphins, but are making a big time zone jump. Ryan Tannehill may or may not be as bad as he performed last week against Houston.
Baltimore (+2.5) @ Philadelphia - Not real sure why Philly is favored after that atrocious game last week in Cleveland. And the Ravens looked pretty good against Cincy.
Washington (-3) @ St. Louis - As good as Robert Griffin III was against New Orleans last week, remember, he is still a rookie. Not enough trust yet for us.
Dalllas (-3) @ Seattle - This may look like a good pick, but it's a long trip for the Cowboys and strange things can happen in the Pacific Northwest.
Denver (+3) @ Atlanta - Still not enough data on either team for us. Also, it's the Monday nighter, which we try to avoid.
Looks Good on Paper
Cleveland (+7) @ Cincinnati - This may be the best chance to pick the Bengals all year. But this is a division game and goofy things happen in division games. Were this game played later in the season with less options available, we may have recommended it. But this being Survivor, it's too early to risk it.
Houston (-7) @ Jacksonville - We avoid picking road teams when possible. And this could possibly be a trap game for the Texans, who have the Peyton Manning led Broncos next week.
Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego - Long trip for the Titans. This almost makes it to one our recommended games, but we still don't trust the Chargers.
NY Jets (+5) @ Pittsburgh - We don't get it. Some sites are recommending picking the Steelers this week. We don't know if the Jets are that good or Buffalo is that bad. Same goes with the Broncos who beat the Steelers. Also Pittsburgh is coming off a short week. In good conscience, we cannot recommend this game.
Detroit (+7) @ San Francisco - The Niners are good. The Lions are not as bad (Matthew Stafford) as last week indicated. San Fran might have a bit of a let down after the Green Bay game last week. Detroit has something to prove. This is not a bad pick, just not one we would make in Week 2.
Our Recommendations
Arizona (+13.5) @ New England - This is obviously the safest pick of the week. Also the biggest spread of the week. The Patriots have much more future value than any other team. This is obviously the first opportunity to use some strategy in you pool.
Tampa Bay (+7) @ NY Giants - The Giants have had extra time to work out the kinks that caused their season-opening loss to Dallas in the Wednesday nighter. The Bucs looked better than expected in their win over Carolina. Josh Freeman looked more like the Josh Freeman of 2010 than 2011, which is a good sign. But I don't see the defending Super Bowl champs starting 0-2 at home.
The Pick
Houston is off the board for us as that was our Week 1 pick. While we are awfully tempted to go with the G-Men, New England is our pick. While we may wish we had the Patriots later in the season, nothing is guaranteed, so we will go with the pick that gives us the best chance to survive. Besides if, heaven forbid, Brady were to go down sometime in the next few weeks, all that future value goes out the window.
Friday, September 7, 2012
NFL Survivor Pool Pick: 2012 Week One
Want our week one pick for our NFL Survivor Pool? Well, you're going to have to read through some highly informative and mildly entertaining analysis to get to it (or just scroll to the bottom, whichever you prefer). And it might not even be highly informative.
We hate week one. The preseason is useless for predicting what will happen in the regular season. Well, the preseason is actually useless for more reasons than but that's another post. Nobody knows who will surprise by being better than expected or which team with high expectations will lay an egg.
If at all possible, our strategy is not to pick road teams or games involving teams in the same division. That is not always possible, but it is a good place to start.
Not Touching with a Ten Foot Pole:
Atlanta (-3) @ Kansas City - Road game for the Falcons. This one is just doesn't make sense in a survivor setting. Much better choices.
Jacksonville (+3) @ Minnesota - Both of these have so many issues. The Viking's Adrian Peterson (off-season surgery) and the Jaguar's Maurice Jones-Drew (holdout), each team's start running back, will not be at full strength.
Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Denver - The Peyton Manning era begins in Denver. Who knows what to expect. Out of either team actually.
Buffalo (+3) @ NY Jets - What a hot mess the NYJ QB situation is. The Bills spent the offseason getting better (at least on paper). No thank you.
Seattle (-3) @ Arizona - Rookie QB for the Seahawks. Never know what to expect in that situation. Plus the favorite is on the road.
Carolina (-3) @ Tampa Bay - Division game with the favorite on the road. Nuff said.
San Diego (+1.5) @ Oakland - We don't even know what to say about this game. Therefore, we will stay far, far away.
Kinda Looks Good on Paper:
San Francisco (+5) @ Green Bay - The Pack at Lambeau is usually a pretty good choice. But the 'Niners play tough defense and there are safer picks out there.
New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee - The Tom Brady led Patriots are, well, the Patriots. They're good. But they're also on the road. Tennessee is not horrible. But still, no need to risk that much in week one.
Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Baltimore - Division game. Plus, we don't thing the Ravens are as good as last year's record indicated.
More Than a Touchdown Favorites:
Philadelphia (-9.5) @ Cleveland - This should not be close, but..........we don't trust Michael Vick to stay healthy at any point in the season. Who's to say what could happen if he goes down? Plus, this a road game for the favorite. It's probably safe enough, but this is week one.
Indianapolis (+9.5) @ Chicago - The Colts without Manning last year were awful. Now Indy puts their trust in the hands of rookie Andrew Luck. How good is Luck? Pretty darn good. But this is the NFL. We don't like venturing into the unknown when we can help it.
St. Louis (+8) @ Detroit - This is the first of two games that we really like. The Rams are better, probably good enough to cover the spread, but we still like Detroit to win. The only caveat is, these are the Lions. But they are not your father's Lions.
Miami (+11.5) @ Houston - The only double digit spread of the week. The Texans' are many people's Super Bowl pick. The Dolphins seem to be in a state of disarray. This may be as close to a sure thing as there is this week.
Washington (+8) @ New Orleans - We could have easily put this in another section, but the spread precludes us from doing so. But do not touch this game. Don't even think about it. The Saints are without their head coach and defensive coordinator from last season. There is the whole bounty situation hanging over their heads. RGIII will be the starting QB for the Redskins, and who knows what he'll do. See Cam Newton from last year. This game just has too many variables for week one.
The Pick:
The name of the of game is Survivor, so the goal is to survive. For us, it comes down to Houston or Detroit. Houston seems like the surest thing (as least as much as there can be in the NFL), but we hate using such a good team in week one. On the other hand, Detroit is still Detroit and that scares us. So, from the Cheap Seats, we will go with Houston in week one.
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